Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marina Turuntseva 
Author-Name-First: Marina           
Author-Name-Last: Turuntseva
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Ekaterina Astafieva  
Author-Name-First: Ekaterina             
Author-Name-Last: Astafieva
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Alexandra Bozhechkova   
Author-Name-First: Alexandra               
Author-Name-Last: Bozhechkova
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Yuri Ponomarev    
Author-Name-First: Yuri                 
Author-Name-Last: Ponomarev
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Marina Baeva 
Author-Name-First: Marina           
Author-Name-Last: Baeva
Author-Workplace-Name:  RANEPA
Author-Name: A. Buzaev
Author-Name-First: A.            
Author-Name-Last: Buzaev
Author-Workplace-Name:  RANEPA
Author-Name:Tatiana Kiblitskaya 
Author-Name-First: Tatiana  
Author-Name-Last: Kiblitskaya
Author-Workplace-Name:  RANEPA
Author-Name:Anton Skrobotov  
Author-Name-First: Anton    
Author-Name-Last: Skrobotov
Author-Workplace-Name:  RANEPA
Title: Model Calculations of Short-Run Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series.
Abstract:  This paper presents calculations of various economic indicators for the Russian Federation in the period from September 2015 to February 2016, which were performed using time series models developed as a result of research conducted by the Gaidar Institute over the past few years.[1] A method of forecasting falls within the group of formal or statistical methods. In other words, the calculated values neither express the opinion nor expert evaluation of the researcher, rather they are calculations of future values for a specific economic indicator, which were performed using formal ARIMA models (p, d, q) given a prevailing trend and its, in some cases, significant changes. 
Classification-JEL: C12, C13, C15, C22, C23
Keywords: Russian economy, time series, forecast, ARIMA model 
Journal: Model Calculations of Short-Run Forecasts of Russian Economic Time Series.
Year: 2015
Issue: 9
Month: August
Pages: 1-19
File-URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/mcfren/09-2015-en.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:gai:mcfren:09-2015