Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name:Sergey Drobyshevsky
Author-Name-First: Sergey                                    
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:Maria Kazakova
Author-Name-First: Maria                                     
Author-Name-Last: Kazakova
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title:    The Decomposition of Russia's GDP Growth Rate in 1999–2015
Abstract:  The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore, the current economic contraction is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia. Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.
Length:  10 pages
Creation-Date: 2015
Revision-Date:   2015
Classification-JEL:  F10, F14, F15, F40
Keywords:    Russian economy; Russian GDP, decomposition
File-URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/ppaper/224Drobyshevsky.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: Revised version, 2015
Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:224