Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name:Idrisov Georgy
Author-Name-First: Georgy 
Author-Name-Last:Idrisov 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Author-Name:Kaukin Andrey
Author-Name-First: Andrey 
Author-Name-Last:Kaukin 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Author-Name:Ponomarev Yuri
Author-Name-First: Yuri 
Author-Name-Last:Ponomarev 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Title: Industrial production dynamics in particular sectors of Russian industry
Abstract: 
Russia’s real economy continued throughout 2015 to accommodate itself to new terms of trade and a new geopolitical context, both of which rendered the dynamics of domestic market’s key indicators less stable and less foreseeable. 
To make sure that sectoral dynamics are interpreted correctly, analysis of time series in the short term should be attended with seasonal and calendar adjustments. In order to be certain that the available dynamics of industrial production indicates that a period of downturn (or growth) is over, recovery (or slowdown) processes are afoot, monthly series should be decomposed into calendar, seasonal, irregular and trend components.[1] It is the changes of the trend component that should be analyzed in order to provide a substantial interpretation of sectoral trends. 

Classification-JEL: C53, E37, L21, L52
Keywords:  Russian economy, Russian industry, industrial production
Creation-Date: 2016
Revision-Date:2016
Publication-Status: Published in RUSSIAN ECONOMY IN 2015  TRENDS AND OUTLOOKS  (ISSUE 37)
Length: 10 pages
File-URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/ppaper/ppaper-2016-253.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revised version, 2016
Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2016-253