Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0
Author-Name: Volovik Nadezhda
Author-Name-First: Nadezhda
Author-Name-Last: Volovik
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title: Russia’s Foreign trade in 2018
Abstract: In November 2018, the Organization for Economic Development and Cooperation (OECD) presented its updated forecasts2, according to which global economic growth would slow down from the current 3.7 percent (the OECD’s estimate as of 2018) to 3.5 percent in 2019–2020. Earlier, the OECD’s experts expected a 3.7 percent growth in global GDP in 2019. But growth in trade and investments slowed down on the back of the US protectionist policy. Growth in interest rates and appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate resulted in the capital outflow from developing countries and depreciation of their currencies. In the OECD zone, monetary stimulation measures are gradually scaled down. Trade conflicts between the US and China constitute a separate negative factor. According to the OECD’s estimate, imposition by the US of a 25 percent duty on Chinese imports and adoption by China of similar measures may cost the global economy, US economy and Chinese economy 0.5 percent of GDP, 0.8 percent of GDP and 1 percent of GDP, respectively.
Classification-JEL: F10, F13, F19
Keywords: Russian economy, foreign trade, terms of trade, regional pattern
Creation-Date: 2019
Revision-Date: 2019
Length: 22 pages
File-URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/ppaper/ppaper-2019-967.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revised Version, 2019
Handle: RePEc:gai:ppaper:ppaper-2019-967