Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:Sergey Drobyshevsky
Author-Name-First:Sergey             
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky  
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:Maria Kazakova
Author-Name-First:Maria              
Author-Name-Last: Kazakova  
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title: RUSSIA’S GDP GROWTH RATE DECOMPOSITION IN 1999-2015
Abstract:   The results of the estimates obtained using the Gaidar Institute method of decomposing Russia’s GDP growth
rates show that in 2015 all of the components of economic growth rates will make them negative. Furthermore,
the current economic contractin is mostly of structural nature induced by the contraction of labor force and
capital, as well as the stagnation of the total factor productivity. Additionally, in 2015, the average annual price
of crude oil is more likely to fall below the long-time average annual, thereby making negative the foreign trade
component of GDP growth rates. The market-determined component of GDP growth rates in 2015 will remain
negative and even lower than that in 2014, being indicative of a stronger cyclical economic contraction in Russia.
Therefore, the actual GDP appears to be below the potential value.  
Classification-JEL: F10, F14, F15, F40
Keywords: Foreign trade
Journal: Russian Economic Developments
Year: 2015
Issue: 4
Month: April
Pages: 24-25
File-URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/494Drobyshevsky.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:494