Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:Sergey Drobyshevsky
Author-Name-First:Sergey 
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:V.Petrenko
Author-Name-First:V. 
Author-Name-Last: Petrenko
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:Marina Turuntseva
Author-Name-First:Marina 
Author-Name-Last: Turuntseva
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:Mikhail Khromov
Author-Name-First:Mikhail 
Author-Name-Last: Khromov
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title:  THE FORECAST OF MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICES - 2015-2016
Abstract:  The economic development indicators in the Russian Federation over the fi rst half-year of 2015 and the initial
data on the movement of the main macroeconomic indices in July-August 2015 are such that they have necessitated
a downward adjustment of the main macroeconomic indices plotted in the basic scenario. The scenariobased
model relies on the forecast of the average annual price of oil. According to our estimations, this index for
2015 will be at the level of $ 55 per barrel. We have presented three scenarios for 2016; our basic scenario in its
core parameters is close to the scenario developed by the RF Ministry of Economic Development and assumes
that the average annual price of oil will be at the level of $ 55 per barrel. The other two scenarios – the pessimistic
(price of oil – $ 40 per barrel) and the optimistic one ($ 70 per barrel) – represent, in our opinion, the ceiling and
the fl oor of the probable range achievable under realistic scenarios.
Classification-JEL:  
Keywords:   THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RESULTS, Russian Economy
Journal: Russian Economic Developments
Year: 2015
Issue: 10
Month: October
Pages: 5-10
File-URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/590Drobyshevsky.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:590