Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:S. Drobyshevsky
Author-Name-First:S.  
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:V. Petrenko
Author-Name-First:V. 
Author-Name-Last: Petrenko
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:M. Turuntseva
Author-Name-First:M.
Author-Name-Last: Turuntseva
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name:M. Khromov
Author-Name-First:M.
Author-Name-Last: Khromov
Author-Workplace-Name:  Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title:  2016-2017 FORECAST: RUSSIA’S RECESSION CONTINUES
Abstract: Preliminary data on Russia’s economic results of 2015, as well as the current
trends in the global energy market, give grounds for revising down possible
scenarios for Russia’s economy in 2016–2017. For instance, a scenario of
yearly average oil prices staying at $35 a barrel in 2016 is now the baseline
scenario, whereas $50 a barrel is considered optimistic (Russia’s 2016 budget
was made on the assumption of $50 a barrel). Simulation of the key macroeconomic
indicators in 2016–2017 under the selected scenarios have revealed
that Russia’s recession will continue during the projection period, and growth
can only be expected if oil prices are steadily above $50–55 a barrel.
Classification-JEL: O32, O38	
Keywords:  Russian Economy
Journal: RUSSIAN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
Year: 2016 
Issue: 2
Month: February
Pages: 10-16
File-URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/679Drobyshevsky.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:679