Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name:Drobyshevsky Sergey Author-Name-First: Sergey Author-Name-Last:Drobyshevsky Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Author-Name:Turuntseva Marina Author-Name-First: Marina Author-Name-Last:Turuntseva Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Author-Name:Khromov Mikhail Author-Name-First: Mikhail Author-Name-Last:Khromov Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Author-Name:Averkiev Vladimir Author-Name-First: Vladimir Author-Name-Last:Averkiev Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy Title: MACROECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2016-2018: THE ECONOMY IS PASSING THROUGH THE LOWEST POINT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS Abstract: Our macroeconomic forecast of the most probable scenarios for 2016–2018 indicates that the Russian economy will pass through the lowest point of the current crisis in mid-2016, and that thereafter, from H2 2016 onwards, it will start displaying signs of stabilization and even recovery. In 2017–2018, a modicum of GDP growth seems to be likely under practically each of the possible scenarios (unless a new dramatic decline in oil prices takes place). The expected GDP growth cannot be characterized as stable because it will not be caused by the restoration of the internal business cycle, the use of idle industrial capacities and an increase in the number of weekly hours actually worked per worker employed by an enterprise. Investment activity will remain weak. The recovery of retail turnover will lag behind the recovery of real personal income, while net personal savings will be on the rise. The rate of inflation will signifi cantly decline, but the 4% inflation target is unlikely to be achieved by the end of the period 2017–2018. Classification-JEL: O32, O38 Keywords: Macroeconomic, Forecast, Markets, Russian Economy Year: 2016 Issue:7 Month: July Pages: 2-9 File-URL: https://iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/recdev-2016-7-684.pdf File-Format: application/pdf File-Function: Revised version, 2016 Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:recdev-2016-7-684