Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name:Drobyshevsky Sergey
Author-Name-First: Sergey 
Author-Name-Last:Drobyshevsky 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Author-Name:Turuntseva Marina
Author-Name-First: Marina 
Author-Name-Last:Turuntseva 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Author-Name:Khromov Mikhail
Author-Name-First: Mikhail 
Author-Name-Last:Khromov 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Author-Name:Averkiev Vladimir
Author-Name-First: Vladimir 
Author-Name-Last:Averkiev 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy 
Title: MACROECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2016-2018: THE ECONOMY IS PASSING THROUGH THE LOWEST POINT OF THE CURRENT CRISIS
Abstract: Our macroeconomic forecast of the most probable scenarios for 2016–2018 indicates that the Russian economy will pass through the lowest point of the current crisis in mid-2016, and that thereafter, from H2 2016 onwards, it will start displaying signs of stabilization and even recovery. In 2017–2018, a modicum of GDP growth seems to be likely under practically each of the possible scenarios (unless a new dramatic decline in oil prices takes place). The expected GDP growth cannot be characterized as stable because it will not be caused by the restoration of the internal business cycle, the use of idle industrial capacities and an increase in the number of weekly hours actually worked per worker employed by an enterprise. Investment activity will remain weak. The recovery of retail turnover will lag behind the recovery of real personal income, while net personal savings will be on the rise. The rate of inflation will signifi cantly decline, but the 4% inflation target is unlikely to be achieved by the end of the period 2017–2018.   
Classification-JEL: O32, O38
Keywords:  Macroeconomic, Forecast, Markets, Russian Economy
Year: 2016
Issue:7
Month: July
Pages: 2-9
File-URL: https://iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/recdev/recdev-2016-7-684.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revised version, 2016
Handle: RePEc:gai:recdev:recdev-2016-7-684