Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marina Turuntseva
Author-Name-First:  Marina  
Author-Name-Last: Turuntseva 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Sergey Drobyshevsky
Author-Name-First:  Sergey   
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Pavel Kadochnnikov
Author-Name-First:  Pavel    
Author-Name-Last: Kadochnnikov 
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title:   Some approachs to forecasting economic indicators
Abstract: The present paper appears a continuation of the 2002+03 IET research in modeling socio+economic time series. The paper contains a review of recent references and sources of forecasting with the use of various econometric models. The authors suggest the method of forecasting with the use of informative structures. They provide a theoretical justification and results of forecasting and comparisons with the respective results obtained by means of ARIMA models. They consider an econometric model of scenariobased forecasts of Russia's main macroeconomic indicators. The paper provides results of computations of prognostic values built on the basis of two scenarios and attempts to build a system of indicators that would allow forecasting financial crises.
Classification-JEL:C51,C52,C53
Keywords:  forecasting, economic indicators
Year: 2005
Issue:  89P
Pages: 195
File-URL: http://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/115Turuntseva.pdf
File-Format: Application/pdf
File-Function: Revised version, 2013
Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:115
Language:ru