Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Astafieva Ekaterina
Author-Name-First: Ekaterina
Author-Name-Last: Astafieva
Author-Workplace-Name: RANEPA
Author-Name: Drobyshevsky Sergey
Author-Name-First: Sergey
Author-Name-Last: Drobyshevsky
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Idrisov Georgy
Author-Name-First: Georgy
Author-Name-Last: Idrisov
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Kaukin Andrey
Author-Name-First: Andrey
Author-Name-Last: Kaukin
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Zyamalov Vadim
Author-Name-First: Vadim
Author-Name-Last: Zyamalov
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Author-Name: Miller Evgenia
Author-Name-First: Evgenia
Author-Name-Last: Miller
Author-Workplace-Name: RANEPA
Author-Name: Pavlov Pavel
Author-Name-First: Pavel
Author-Name-Last: Pavlov
Author-Workplace-Name: RANEPA
Author-Name: Sinelnikov-Murylev Sergey
Author-Name-First: Sergey
Author-Name-Last: Sinelnikov-Murylev
Author-Workplace-Name: VAVT
Author-Name: Turuntseva Marina
Author-Name-First: Marina
Author-Name-Last: Turuntseva
Author-Workplace-Name: Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy
Title: Approaches to Modeling Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
Abstract: The publication contains three papers authored by the Gaidar Institute’s leading researchers
based on the studies conducted by the Institute in 2018. In the first paper, a modification of
Russia’s GDP growth rate decomposition methodology is suggested, along with estimates of the
indicators of structural unemployment and total factor productivity calculated for the Russian
economy. It also offers an analysis of the structural, foreign trade, and cyclical components of
the estimated GDP growth rate under several macroeconomic scenarios for 2019–2024. The
second paper assesses the economic potential of alternative sources of growth, in particular
informal institutions – the social and cultural norms that have evolved in the Russian regions,
including various types of social capital and entrepreneurial culture. The third paper attempts to
identify the effects on the quality of socioeconomic forecasts derived on the basis of a massive
volume of data of the recent alterations in the methodology applied by Rosstat in its calculations
of industrial production and industrial producer price indices that translated into changes in the
structure of data used in forecasting.
Classification-JEL: C10, C15, E32, O43, O47, R11
Keywords: Russian economy, modelling, macroeconomic indicators
Year: 2019
Issue: 179P
Month: 
Pages: 307
File-URL: https://www.iep.ru/files/RePEc/gai/rpaper/rpaper-2019-179P-994.pdf
File-Format: application/pdf
File-Function: Revised Version, 2019
Handle: RePEc:gai:rpaper:rpaper-2019-179P-994