24.07.2019 – MEETING OF GAIDAR INSTITUTE SCIENTIFIC COUNCIL
Meeting of scientific council of Gaidar Institute dedicated to the topic “Expert/analytical support of the Government by the Gaidar Institute and RANEPA in terms of achievement of national goals and realization of national projects” took place on July 24, 2019.
Georgy Idrisov, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Director of Center for Real Center, delivered principal presentation “Executive order №204 in the context of challenges to modern economic policy".
Georgy Idrisov, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Director of Center for Real Center, delivered principal presentation “Executive order №204 in the context of challenges to modern economic policy".
In the beginning of his presentation, expert underlined that adoption of Executive order “On national goals and strategic tasks of development of the Russian Federation for the period till 2024” became a substantial and regulatory follow up of the May Executive orders issued by President Vladimir Putin in 2012 and those goals which were declared in the annual messages by the head of state.
A "balanced image of the future Russia" was established and provided for the basis of Executive order No. 204. It included 9 national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024: ensure sustainable natural population growth; increase of life expectancy to 78 years; ensure sustainable growth of real incomes of citizens; reduce poverty twofold; improve housing conditions; accelerate technological development; ensure accelerated implementation of digital technologies; join five largest economies in the world; create highly productive export-oriented sector in the principal sectors of economy.
Georgy Idrisov tackled the process of achievement of declared goals taking into consideration six characteristics of modern economic growth, which were announced by Simon Kuznets, Nobel laureate. This is sustainable growth of the GDP rather than episodes of its decline; demographic transition; sustainable structural transformation towards industrial and postindustrial society; institutional changes; market integration and divergence of regional development. Speaker also considered structure of financing of 13 national projects in 2019–2024 and share of national projects according to certain items of expenditures in the overall expenditures of budgetary system.
According to conclusion of the analysis related to implementation of strategic tasks, expert stated: ”Presidential Executive order №204 and thirteen national projects created a number of new institutional and administrative aspects for the period of 2018-2024. In aggravate, these aspects constitute a new model of social/economic and scientific/technological development with major part of solutions taken by administrative methods. This will allow to expand opportunities of accelerated development under existing geopolitical tension and uncertainty at commodity markets. It is possible to go back to a higher use of market principles for solution of development goals after 2024. It will define sustainability of the formulated tendencies in the long term perspective".
Georgy Idrisov said: the goal of expert community is to help the Government to work out new approaches. "We watch how the ship goes if it turns back in the wrong direction according to our opinion, we have to help him". The most critical condition and at the same time the goal of the formulated model is the improvement of trust between the state, the business and the society. Speaker underlined: trust is the consequence of consistent, predictable and resultative economic policy.
Presentation to the report
Andrey Kaukin, Candidate of economic science, Head of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department, presented a supporting report "Factors of productivity growth and related measures of economic policy" at the meeting of Scientific Council.
According to speaker, one of the key topics in the context of economic development of the country is growth of labor productivity reflected in the target indicators of national project “Labor productivity and support of employment”: it is planned to reach 5% annual growth of labor productivity at medium-sized and large enterprises of basic non-resource industries by 2024.
According to expert, goals of national projects on productivity are rather ambitious, however, in principle they are achievable. However, the thing is which measures of the economic policy will be used. Then, Andrey Kaukin tackled on growth productivity factors described in the academic literature and compared them with activities embedded in the national project.
In the conclusion, Andrey Kaukin pointed out major risks of the implementation of productivity national project. Among them: a focus on supporting enterprises and not on creating the same stimulating conditions for all market participants, insufficient support measures, risk of financing inefficient companies
Expert also noted potential destabilization of individual markets due to intensive interference in the work of market mechanisms and limited opportunities for technological development of economy.
Presentation to the report
A "balanced image of the future Russia" was established and provided for the basis of Executive order No. 204. It included 9 national development goals of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2024: ensure sustainable natural population growth; increase of life expectancy to 78 years; ensure sustainable growth of real incomes of citizens; reduce poverty twofold; improve housing conditions; accelerate technological development; ensure accelerated implementation of digital technologies; join five largest economies in the world; create highly productive export-oriented sector in the principal sectors of economy.
Georgy Idrisov tackled the process of achievement of declared goals taking into consideration six characteristics of modern economic growth, which were announced by Simon Kuznets, Nobel laureate. This is sustainable growth of the GDP rather than episodes of its decline; demographic transition; sustainable structural transformation towards industrial and postindustrial society; institutional changes; market integration and divergence of regional development. Speaker also considered structure of financing of 13 national projects in 2019–2024 and share of national projects according to certain items of expenditures in the overall expenditures of budgetary system.According to conclusion of the analysis related to implementation of strategic tasks, expert stated: ”Presidential Executive order №204 and thirteen national projects created a number of new institutional and administrative aspects for the period of 2018-2024. In aggravate, these aspects constitute a new model of social/economic and scientific/technological development with major part of solutions taken by administrative methods. This will allow to expand opportunities of accelerated development under existing geopolitical tension and uncertainty at commodity markets. It is possible to go back to a higher use of market principles for solution of development goals after 2024. It will define sustainability of the formulated tendencies in the long term perspective".
Georgy Idrisov said: the goal of expert community is to help the Government to work out new approaches. "We watch how the ship goes if it turns back in the wrong direction according to our opinion, we have to help him". The most critical condition and at the same time the goal of the formulated model is the improvement of trust between the state, the business and the society. Speaker underlined: trust is the consequence of consistent, predictable and resultative economic policy.
Presentation to the report
Andrey Kaukin, Candidate of economic science, Head of the Industrial Organization and Infrastructure Economics Department, presented a supporting report "Factors of productivity growth and related measures of economic policy" at the meeting of Scientific Council.
According to speaker, one of the key topics in the context of economic development of the country is growth of labor productivity reflected in the target indicators of national project “Labor productivity and support of employment”: it is planned to reach 5% annual growth of labor productivity at medium-sized and large enterprises of basic non-resource industries by 2024.
According to expert, goals of national projects on productivity are rather ambitious, however, in principle they are achievable. However, the thing is which measures of the economic policy will be used. Then, Andrey Kaukin tackled on growth productivity factors described in the academic literature and compared them with activities embedded in the national project.
In the conclusion, Andrey Kaukin pointed out major risks of the implementation of productivity national project. Among them: a focus on supporting enterprises and not on creating the same stimulating conditions for all market participants, insufficient support measures, risk of financing inefficient companies
Expert also noted potential destabilization of individual markets due to intensive interference in the work of market mechanisms and limited opportunities for technological development of economy.
Presentation to the report
Thursday, 25.07.2019