Forecast of Russia’s GDP growth

Investments in the current year demonstrate a strong upward trend and are projected to reach 2008 level solely in 2013. This development is due to tougher than before the global crisis credit conditions and on the whole is also due to less favorable than in 2008 export prices. Increased investment activity and especially investment growth towards the infrastructure projects is forthcoming in 2011. That is why, 2011–2013 will be years of transition from economic revival to sustainable economic expansion with boosted investment component. Rate of saving in fixed capital will go up from 20.5% of GDP and in 2010 to 23% of GDP which will exceed the pre crisis level but will remain insufficiently low for modernization of the economy.

Fall of net exports will adversely affect the structure of economic growth in the coming years. 

In these circumstances projected GDP growth in 2011 is estimated at 104.2% and in 2012 – 103.9%. According to the WB estimate Russia’s economy upswing in 2011 will come to 104.5% and in 2012 – 103.5%. Let us note that in both cases average annual GDP growth rate in 2011-2012 will come to 104.0%

Russia’s economy will stick to priority rates of economic development against predicted growth estimates of global economy. By the WB forecast global GDP increment in 2010 will come to 3.5% and in 2011 will slack to 3.3% and will recover to 3.6% in 2012.

O.I. Izriadnova, Head of Structural Economy Lab