IGOR EFREMOV: “THE DECLINE IN RUSSIA'S POPULATION BY THE END OF THE XXI CENTURY IS NOT CATASTROPHIC"

According to demographers, the most probable scenario is a decline in the population of Russia by the end of XXI century up to 137.5 mn people. At the same time, the natural population decline will be 353.000 a year, while the annual migration inflow will be about 245.000.

This prediction was more optimistic than the one made by UN in 2019, despite the impact of the pandemic. Researchers have developed a total of 30 scenarios, nine of which suggest a population increase to 160 mn or more. In turn, five scenarios still show the index of 146-156 mn people, while the remaining 16 scenarios envisage a decline below 140 mn. Eleven of the worst-case scenarios involve a decline to below 120 mn.

The population reduction forecasted by colleagues to 137.5 mn people in the main scenario is not catastrophic at all, said Igor Efremov, Researcher, International Research Department of Political Demography and Macrodynamics at the Gaidar Institute. He believes that Russian demographic dynamics will not be among the worst compared to the expected population decline in many other European and Asian countries.

The expert added that increased migration in the current situation is not a panacea. "If Russia's birth rate remains at its current low level and lags far behind advanced countries in terms of life expectancy, even an increase in migration attractiveness will not prevent the country's population from shrinking," he warned.