NATALIA SHAGAIDA: “IF RUSSIA AND THE WEST DO NOT LIFT RECIPROCAL SANCTIONS, THE FOOD SITUATION WILL BE SEVERE”
Natalia Shagaida, Head of the Agricultural Policy Department, Gaidar Institute commented to «Ura.ru» on the news that the RF Government was preparing for possible food price rises because of the trade war of the West with Russia. With this aim in view, Mikhail Mishustin, RF Prime Minister introduced a temporary ban on exports of sugar and grain from March 15, 2022 and ordered to increase imports of food.
If Russia and the West do not lift reciprocal restrictions and sea-borne trade does not return to normal, the global food situation will be very severe, Natalia Shagaida warns.
“As far back as February, it was noted in the UN Bulletin on Global Food Security that global prices for wheat increased by 2.1% on the back of supply disruptions in the Black Sea region, complicating eventually exports fr om Ukraine and Russia, two major grain exporters. At present, prices are even higher and this acute situation is pushing them up, Natalia Shagaida noted.
In her view, the prospects of a sowing campaign are highly uncertain in Ukraine. “Low-income countries of Africa and South-East Asia wh ere the share of imported grain is large in the ration of the population, for example, Egypt, will be hit the hardest. Further, conflicts most commonly squeeze out international aid reserves and poverty-stricken countries get less funding, so, the prospects of starvation are highly likely there,” the expert concludes.
“As far back as February, it was noted in the UN Bulletin on Global Food Security that global prices for wheat increased by 2.1% on the back of supply disruptions in the Black Sea region, complicating eventually exports fr om Ukraine and Russia, two major grain exporters. At present, prices are even higher and this acute situation is pushing them up, Natalia Shagaida noted.
In her view, the prospects of a sowing campaign are highly uncertain in Ukraine. “Low-income countries of Africa and South-East Asia wh ere the share of imported grain is large in the ration of the population, for example, Egypt, will be hit the hardest. Further, conflicts most commonly squeeze out international aid reserves and poverty-stricken countries get less funding, so, the prospects of starvation are highly likely there,” the expert concludes.