NATALIA SHAGAIDA: "WITH NORMAL DEMAND, THERE ARE NO GROUNDS FOR FOOD SHORTAGES”
In her interview to Klub Regionov, Natalia Shagaida, Head of the Agricultural Policy Department of the Gaidar Institute said that with normal demand there was no reason for concern about shortages of sugar, cereals and flour.
“Overall, Russia produces grain 1.5 times more than it needs, including twice as much wheat; as regards sugar, we have always had it in good supply. We have formed these stockpiles. Further, it is quite a simple industry which does not require sophisticated equipment and if something breaks down, the risk of a failure to eliminate faults is currently minimal. Also, the RF Government has taken measures to establish control over exports to the EEU member countries; there are also problems with exports to other countries, so we shall see enough products on the domestic market. We had a good harvest last year and the outlook for grain yield this year is going to be better than last year, so in the next year or two we should not worry about food shortages in the course of any developments. As regards producers, they may worry about how to sell their products for profit,” the expert says.
As regards consumer behavior of individuals, it is traditional, Natalia Shagaida says. “It seems that people lived all this time in the past, before 1992, when permanent shortages prevailed. They are quick to return to the logic of survival: buy and stockpile what is available at present. They apprehend sooner prices rises for food products, rather than food shortages. Certainly, I would like to say that it will not happen because prices for petrol and gas may decline and this leads to a decrease in producers’ costs and counters a rise in prices. However, there is currently too much uncertainty, lots of supply chains broke down and all predictions are just an exercise in guesswork. The only thing I want to say: if you bought a lot, take proper care of your stockpiles,” Natalia Shagaida concludes.
As regards consumer behavior of individuals, it is traditional, Natalia Shagaida says. “It seems that people lived all this time in the past, before 1992, when permanent shortages prevailed. They are quick to return to the logic of survival: buy and stockpile what is available at present. They apprehend sooner prices rises for food products, rather than food shortages. Certainly, I would like to say that it will not happen because prices for petrol and gas may decline and this leads to a decrease in producers’ costs and counters a rise in prices. However, there is currently too much uncertainty, lots of supply chains broke down and all predictions are just an exercise in guesswork. The only thing I want to say: if you bought a lot, take proper care of your stockpiles,” Natalia Shagaida concludes.