Oil and gas revenues dropped 1.7 p.p. of GDP in January thru April 2013

According to the Federal Treasury, federal budget revenues amounted to Rb 4223.4bn, or 20.9% of GDP in January thru April 2013, showing a decline of 2.2 p.p. of GDP year on year.

Oil and gas revenues which dropped 1.7 p.p. of GDP year on year, became the key downtrend driver. Federal budget expenditures amounted to Rb 2087.6bn (21.2% of GDP) in the period of January thru April 2013, showing a decrease of 2.3 p.p. of GDP year on year.

The federal budget ran a deficit of Rb 74.8bn (0.4% of GDP) within the first four months of 2013, being equal to the deficit as percent of GDP in January thru April of the preceding year. Oil and gas deficit declined 1.6 p.p. of GDP (10.7% of GDP) in absolute terms year on year.

Within the first four months of 2013, federal budget profit tax revenues accounted for 0.5% of GDP, being equal to the amount of 2012. Domestic VAT revenues decreased 0.6 p.p. of GDP year on year in January thru April 2013. The gap of federal budget revenues from VAT on domestic transactions as percent of GDP has been increasing in depth, because revenues from VAT on domestic transactions dropped 0.3 p.p. of GDP year on year within two and three months of 2013. Revenues from VAT on imports decreased 0.2 p.p. of GDP year on year in January thru April 2013.

Federal budget revenues from excises on domestic transactions and imports increased 0.2 p.p. and 0.01 p.p. of GDP respectively year on year within the first three months of 2013. Federal budget revenues from mineral tax and foreign trade fell 0.6 p.p. and 0.9 p.p. of GDP respectively year on year within the first three months of 2013.

In general, a downtrend in the federal budget revenues may escalate the threat of a recession in the coming months, because the budget policy has no sufficient potential to encourage the demand and investments.

Tischenko T.V. - Ph.D. in Economics, a senior researcher at Budget Policy Department