On Assessment of GDP in the 1st Quarter of 2012

Structural changes in utilization of GDP are determined by a simultaneous expansion of the domestic and external demand. The share of the net export in the GDP structure increased by 1.2 p.p. as compared to the 1^st quarter of 2011. That was justified by recovery of positive dynamics of export and slowdown of import growth rates. Advanced growth rates of the investment demand against the consumer demand had a considerable effect on the domestic market. The situation on the domestic market is determined by prevalence of the trend of advanced growth in imports against domestic production and accompanied by weakening of growth rates of manufacturing industry.

The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has published “Scenario Conditions of Formation of Alternative Forecasts of the Social and Economic Development in the 2013–2015 Period” with expected estimates of the economic development in 2012 taken into account. According to the above conditions, dynamics of the domestic demand in 2012 is determined by growth in retail trade turnover and is estimated at the level of 6.3%, investments in capital assets – 6.6%, import – 12.5% and industry – 3.1%.

According to assessments of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, in 2012 the expected GDP growth rates will amount to 3.4% with acceleration to 4.2% in the 2013–2015 period.

О.I. Izryadnova, Head of the Structural Policy Department