On the Consolidated Budget of the Constituent Entities of the Russian Federation in 2012
The extent of equation of the regional and local budgets is a main index of efficiency of government measures applied in the intergovernmental fiscal relations. Also, it shows the state of recovery of Russian economy, as well as the potential for further development. If during the financial crisis in 2009 the level of the deficit of the consolidated budget of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation amounted to Rb 329bn, as early as 2010 when the global economy started to recover it decreased by 70% to Rb 100bn. However, despite the fact that there are still some signs of economic recovery (growth in the industrial output and prices on energy resources) according to the government's forecasts in 2012 as in 2011 the consolidated budget of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation will be a deficit one again. It is to be noted that the level of the 2011 deficit in nominal terms will not differ much from the level in 2012 and it will amount to about Rb 50bn (0.084% of the GDP).
On the one hand, on the basis of the forecasts for 2011 and 2012 it can be concluded that there is some static financial situation in regions and municipal entities. In 2012, the growth rates of budget revenues and expenditures as against 2012 are expected in nominal terms at the level of 5.8% which figure is below the level of the inflation rate of 6% provided for in the drat law on the federal budget in 2012 and the 2013-2014 planned period. On the other hand, such a restraining economic policy can be explained by a drop in the revenues of the budgetary system of Russia in case of occurrence of possible macroeconomic shocks in 2012. In addition to the above, in the past few years the government has actively tried to carry out a policy aimed at reduction of inefficient expenditures and promotion of autonomy of sub-national government authorities. Thus, the forecasted value of the deficit of the consolidated budget of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in is 2011 and 2012 can be explained sooner by political factors aimed at prevention of growth in expenditures, rather than economic ones which are related to slowdown of recovery and economic growth. A similar situation took place before when the deficit of the consolidated budget of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2010 was planned at the level of 2009 2, but the forecast did not come true and as it was stated above the actual deficit in 2010 was 70% below that of 2009.
Examining the current consolidated budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, it can be noted that as of September 1, 2011 the revenues amounted to Rb 5,079.4bn, while the expenditures, to Rb 4,154.7bn. As a result, during the eight months of 2011 the aggregate surplus of regional and local budgets amounted to Rb 924.6bn which figure is 60% higher than in the respective period last year. At the same time, according to the government a sustained surplus trend became evident as early as from the beginning of the year3. At present, the Ministry of Finance has advised to put aside additional revenues as a reserve to cover possible risks in 2012.
As of September 2011, only in two constituent entities of the Russian Federation budgets were executed with a deficit, that is, in the Volgograd Region (the deficit of the consolidated budget of the region amounted to 0.05% of the expenditures) and the Republic of Mordovia (8.9% of the expenditures). In the similar period in 2010, there were six such regions: the Kostroma Region, the Vologda region, the Novgorod Region, the Republic of Udmurtia, the Saratov Region and the Chukotka Autonomous Region whose aggregate deficit in the eight months of 2010 amounted Rb 5.7bn (3.9% of the expenditures).
It is to be noted that despite the growth in tax revenues and non-tax revenues of regional and local budgets that was registered in the eight months of 2011 at the level of 118.9% nationwide against the similar period of 2010 a drop of up to 2.7% in the revenues was observed in two regions - the Republic of Altai and the Jewish Autonomous Region - as compared to 2010. In 57 regions out of 83 regions the growth rates of revenues were below the average nationwide level.
А.А. Alaev, Researcher of the Budget Federalism Department
1 A.G. Siluanov's statement at the meeting of the Council of Federation of the Russian Federation - http://www1.minfin.ru/ru/press/speech/index.php?pg4=2&id4=14266.
2 A.G. Siluanov's statement to information agencies at the press conference at the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation -
http://www1.minfin.ru/ru/press/speech/index.php?&show_all4=1&id4=9259.
3 A.G. Siluanov's statement at the meeting of the Presidium of the Government of the Russian Federation - http://www1.minfin.ru/ru/press/speech/index.php?id4=14306.