Russian Economy in the 1st Quarter 2010

 

Early in 2010, the macroeconomic situation was formed under the impact of factors which took place in the second half of 2009, that is, expansion of the external demand, low-key consumer market dynamics, weak investment activities and the high rate of unemployment.

In the 1st quarter 2010, the index of industrial production amounted to 105.8 as compared to the 1^st quarter 2009. It is to be noted that the growth in production was registered in all the aggregated types of economic activities. A positive factor of the first three months of 2010 was a renewal of the positive dynamics in manufacturing industry as compared to the same period in 2009.  

On the basis of the existing trends, the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia expects to adjust in May the 2010 forecast. According to the base forecast of the Ministry’s experts, the GDP was estimated on the basis of the year’s results in the range of 3-3.5% with oil prices amounting to USD 68-69 a barrel. Considering the economic growth in January-March, in 2010 the GDP growth may amount to 4%. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has readjusted its forecast of Russia’s GDP dynamics. The IMF analysts take an optimistic view of the state of the Russian economy this year and have raised their forecast of the GDP growth from 3.6% to 4% in 2010 and to 3.3% in 2011 with the inflation rate amounting to 7% and 5.7%, respectively. 

О.I. Izryadnova, Head of the Laboratory of Structural Problems of Economy