SERGEI TSUKHLO: “60% OF THE MANUFACTURERS BELIEVE THAT SALES VOLUMES ARE NORMAL”
The Expert magazine presents the findings of the monthly surveys carried out by the Business Surveys Department, Gaidar Institute.
According to Serge Tsukhlo, Head of the Business Survey Department, Gaidar Institute, in August the Russian industry retained the demand growth rates observed in July, while the balance of sales forecasts increased by 10 points and entered confidently the positive zone. Eventually, optimism of the expected changes in demand has currently attained the pre-crisis level registered in H1 2019.
Such dynamics of actual and expected changes in demand have led to growth of up to 60% in satisfaction with August sales volumes, that is, a return to the pre-crisis level of March. Simultaneously, the assessment of availability of bank loans has attained the pre-crisis level.
Amid growing optimism of sales forecasts, the share of estimates of stocks of finished products as surplus ones fell all-time low (in the entire retrospective of 339 monthly surveys), that is, the mere 9%, while the estimate of stocks of finished products as normal attained the record-high level (78%).
“If the availability of loans has reached the pre-crisis level, the industry’s investment plans recovered only by 25 points by August out of 40 points lost in April and remain definitely in the negative zone. Also, it is worth mentioning that they improved by the mere 2 points last month. The industry is not prepared to invest amid its good provision with current output capacities and expected changes in demand”, Sergei Tsukhlo notes.
Such dynamics of actual and expected changes in demand have led to growth of up to 60% in satisfaction with August sales volumes, that is, a return to the pre-crisis level of March. Simultaneously, the assessment of availability of bank loans has attained the pre-crisis level.
Amid growing optimism of sales forecasts, the share of estimates of stocks of finished products as surplus ones fell all-time low (in the entire retrospective of 339 monthly surveys), that is, the mere 9%, while the estimate of stocks of finished products as normal attained the record-high level (78%).
“If the availability of loans has reached the pre-crisis level, the industry’s investment plans recovered only by 25 points by August out of 40 points lost in April and remain definitely in the negative zone. Also, it is worth mentioning that they improved by the mere 2 points last month. The industry is not prepared to invest amid its good provision with current output capacities and expected changes in demand”, Sergei Tsukhlo notes.