The Collection of Excise Duties and Mineral Resources Extraction Tax Increases by More Than 20%
Over the course of January-November 2012, maximum growth was shown by excise duties collections. They amounted to Rb 713.0bn, which was 20.3% more than in the corresponding period of 2011.
Second place belonged to the revenues generated by Mineral Resources Extraction Tax (MRET). Over the course of the first 11 months of 2012, their amount grew to Rb 2,279.9bn, which was 20.2% more than in the corresponding period of 2011.
Third place was held by the revenues generated by Personal Income Tax. Over the course of the first 11 months of 2012, these increased to Rb 1,939.3bn, or by 14.1% more than in the corresponding period of 2011. The volume of the consolidated budget's revenues generated by taxes on property rose to Rb 759.1bn, or by 15%.
Over the course of January-November 2012, the federal budget's revenues generated by VAT levied on goods, work and services realized in RF territory amounted to Rb 1,653.1bn (which was 6.8% more than in the corresponding period of 2011). The federal budget's revenues generated by VAT levied on goods imported into RF territory amounted to Rb 93.7bn, which was 12.8% more than in the first 11 months of 2011.
Tax on Profit collections grew to a much lesser extent: the federal budget's revenues generated by this tax amounted to Rb 2,186.5bn, which was 3.2% more than in the corresponding period of 2011.
It should be noted that the current upward trend in tax collection has been observed since the end of 2009. According to IEP estimates, in 2010 and 2011, the conjunctural component of the tax-generated revenues of the RF budgetary system, determined by the favorable behavior of oil prices (they currently exceed their average of many years), amounted to 3.5% of GDP and 5.0% of GDP respectively (while the overall tax load on the economy amounted to 32.2% of GDP and 35.8% of GDP respectively). Thus, the years 2010 and 2011 saw a restorative growth of the tax-generated revenues of the federal budget, which was taking place against the backdrop of the rise in oil prices that had began at the end of 2009 (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Prices for Brent Crude Oil in 2000-2001 (US Dollars per Barrel)
* IMF forecast.
Source: IMF (http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28 ).
However, as far as the post-crisis period is concerned, one can notice that, since the beginning of 2011,the growth rate of tax collection has been demonstrating a decline on the period from the end of 2009 until the beginning of 2011. This phenomenon can be explained by the fact that Russia's economy has already exhausted its potential for growth. Experts have repeatedly emphasized that the Russian economy lacks resources for further growth, as is also shown, for example, by data on tax collection in 2012. According to these data, the highest growth rate of tax collection belongs to MRET, which can be explained by the fact that this tax is calculated by applying a formula linked to the price of oil. At the same time, the collectability of Tax on Profit demonstrates a very modest (3.6%) rate of growth. It should be noted that, according to our estimates, MRET is characterized by the highest degree of sensitivity to fluctuations in the price of oil by comparison with the main taxes (Single Social Tax, PIT and VAT).
In 2012, the low growth rate of this tax's collectability was determined not by a fall in oil prices (according to the IMF's forecast, in 2012, the average annual price of Brent crude oil will amount to $ 106.2 per barrel, which will be 2 pp. higher than in 2011, see Fig.1), but by internal economic factors.
M.V. Kazakova - Candidate of Economic Sciences, Head of the Economic Development Department