The Gaidar Institute prepared The Mid-Term Forecast of Development of the Economy and Financial Sector of Russia until 2016.
According to the scenario of the economic development of Russia selected by experts of the Gaidar institute as a base one, in years to come low economic activity will prevail, but gradual acceleration of economic growth is expected by virtue of a complex of government measures aimed at upgrading of the business climate in the country.
It is to be noted that the key factor is prevalence of favorable external conditions, primarily, high prices on oil (over $100 a barrel) and the unfaltering demand on the Russian export of primary products (in physical volumes). If oil prices fall to the level of $80 a barrel, experts of the Gaidar Institute expect another scenario, that is, negative growth rates of the real sector, substantial depreciation of the national currency and other. In other words, even a stagnation scenario is considered provided that favorable external conditions do not change.
The forecast of the main indices of the Russian economy as % of the previous year
|
2012 |
2013 |
2014 (forecast) |
2015 |
2016 |
|
|
GDP |
3.4 |
1.3 |
1.9 |
2.0 |
2.1 |
|
Investments |
6.4 |
-0.3 |
1.9 |
2.4 |
2.5 |
|
Retail trade volumes |
6.3 |
3.9 |
3.0 |
3.5 |
3.8 |
|
Real disposable income of households |
4.6 |
3.3 |
0.9 |
0.4 |
1.0 |
|
Money supply (М2) |
11.9 |
14.6 |
16.0 |
16.3 |
14.9 |
|
Loans to non-financial institutions |
14.4 |
13 |
12.5 |
12.3 |
11.8 |
|
Loans to households |
38.8 |
28 |
23.9 |
16.2 |
14.4 |
|
Deposits of households |
18.2 |
18.1 |
16.4 |
14.8 |
13.5 |
Source: calculations of the Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy.