The situation can be improved by changing the current model of economic development
The Russian Ministry of Finance informed on Wednesday, that the federal budget deficit in January of this year has reached Rb 81.25bn, or 1.8% of GDP.
According to the tentative assessment of the Ministry of Finance, federal budget revenues in January amounted to Rb 1.091 trillion. or 8.5% of the planned amount for 2013. Cash execution of expenditures made Rb 1.172 trillion, or 8.8% of the plan for this year.
According to the Federal Treasury, in January 2012 the federal budget deficit made 0.7% of GDP, which is by 1.1 p.p. lower than in January 2013. In our view, the current situation in the public sector is largely dependent on the current trends of the Russian economy, in which, after the crisis of 2008-2009 the deceleration (stagnation) of the rates of economic growth and investment is observed. Thus, according to Rosstat, GDP growth rate decreased from 4.5% in 2010 to 3.4% in 2012 (which is much lower than the average indicator for the period of 2000-2007, i.e., 7.2%), and investment growth rate in capital assets by the end 2012 made 6.7% as compared with the previous period, while in 2011 this indicator was 8.3% (compared with 2010).
Favorable dynamics of the global energy market has provided a significant positive effect on the revenues of the federal budget (in particular, tax revenues). Moreover, the high level of oil prices served as a cushion for Russia during the 2008-2009 crisis, having significantly mitigated the effects of the deteriorating situation in the global markets and prevented a more dramatic default in the Russian economy. At the present time, as has been noted by experts [1], the potential of the Russian economy has been exhausted, and in our view, any improvement, including the budget sphere, is possible only with the help of changing the current model of economic development and the search for new growth resources.
M.V. Kazakova, Ph.D. in Economics, Head of Economic Development Department