VLADIMIR NAZAROV: “RUSSIA WILL SURPRISE THE WEST BY THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY”
Vladimir Nazarov, Deputy Head of International Research Department of Health Care Economics and Health Care Reform, the Gaidar Institute, commented to “Vzgliad” newspaper on the declaration made by experts of the EIU British Center that Russia will require twice as long for economic recovery, at least, four years, compared to global economy.
Vladimir Nazarov noted: “We will return to the pre-crisis level as fast as we dropped”.
The expert of the Gaidar Institute concluded: “There must be a systemic sectoral or financial crisis required for such a lengthy four-year recovery that destroys economic chains. Alternatively, something indeed dramatic has to happen in the world, for example, the possibility of a large-scale trade war between the United States and China, or a massive collapse of the banking system. However, fortunately, we do not observe anything like that. That is not to say either that we have any inflated bubbles that should deflate. This is definitely not about our economy. Therefore, it is not clear why it has to recover for four years. In my opinion, our recovery will be faster. Gradually, Russia will return to the minimum possible unemployment, less than 5% that we had in the past. At present, we have dropped to 10%, and this is too much for Russia, although such level of unemployment is not very high according to the world standards. However, it is obvious that as soon as the quarantine measures are lifted, the employment slowly goes back to normal. We are already observing the employment recovery”.
The expert of the Gaidar Institute concluded: “There must be a systemic sectoral or financial crisis required for such a lengthy four-year recovery that destroys economic chains. Alternatively, something indeed dramatic has to happen in the world, for example, the possibility of a large-scale trade war between the United States and China, or a massive collapse of the banking system. However, fortunately, we do not observe anything like that. That is not to say either that we have any inflated bubbles that should deflate. This is definitely not about our economy. Therefore, it is not clear why it has to recover for four years. In my opinion, our recovery will be faster. Gradually, Russia will return to the minimum possible unemployment, less than 5% that we had in the past. At present, we have dropped to 10%, and this is too much for Russia, although such level of unemployment is not very high according to the world standards. However, it is obvious that as soon as the quarantine measures are lifted, the employment slowly goes back to normal. We are already observing the employment recovery”.