ACCOUNTS CHAMBER PREPARED A MACROECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2021–2023 TOGETHER WITH GAIDAR INSTITUTE

For the first time, the Accounts Chamber submitted its own forecast for the development of Russian economy, due to be updated 1-2 times a year. This document was elaborated under the Development Strategy of the Accounts Chamber for 2018–2024, with one of the priority areas being the creation of own analytical products based on modern approaches to modeling social and economic development. The Institute for Economic Policy named after Egor T. Gaidar entered into partnership.

“We really appreciate the cooperation with the Accounts Chamber. Development of this forecast is an important project for us, it allows us to fully implement our own expert potential”, Sergey Drobyshevsky, Scientific Director of the Gaidar Institute, said.

According to RBC, own macro forecast will allow the Accounts Chamber to draw more competent conclusions on the validity of the government forecasts. The macro forecast was developed in two scenarios, the neutral and the risky, differing in external economic conditions and expectations of the development of the coronavirus issue in Russia and globally.

Both scenarios assume first an economic downturn and then a recovery. One of the factors that will affect the development of the situation is the oil price. At the 2020 yearend, the average annual price of Urals crude oil is expected at $ 42/barrel under the neutral scenario, while in 2022–2023 it will be set at $ 55/ barrel. In the risk scenario for 2021–2023, the trend towards a gradual increase in oil prices will maintain, however, the price of $ 55/barrel will be reached only in 2023.

Based on the oil price and some other factors, the GDP will reduce by 4.2% in 2020 under neutral scenario, and in the next 3 years, its growth will not exceed 3%. Under the risky scenario, the GDP decline will reach 4.8% in 2020, while in 2021–2023, the economic growth will remain in the range of about 2%. According to the first scenario, the Russian economy will return to pre-crisis 2019 level only in 2022, and in 2023 according to the second scenario. In both cases, the country's GDP growth rates will be significantly lower than the global economy. Growth of households’ incomes will be very moderate, i.e. 2% under the neutral scenario and no more than 1.7% under the risky scenario.

According to the Accounts Chamber, such dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators is associated with the expectation that anti-crisis measures and the National Action Plan will provide less positive effect than the Government assumes.

Read also: Finam, Forbes, Finmarket, Rossyiskaya Gazeta.

Wednesday, 28.10.2020