ALEXEI VEDEV ON THE SITUATION ON THE OIL MARKE

The Brent oil prices saw sustainable growth. They have recently surpassed $82 per barrel for the first time since April 2023, which situation may have considerable effect on the exchange rate of the ruble and the rate of inflation. A barrel of Russian Urals oil is traded around 10% above the so-called cap price imposed by the West (currently $66.2). Analysts of the Goldman Sachs Group predict a rise in Brent oil prices to $86 per barrel by the end 2023 and considerable oil shortages on the market owing to record-high demand. According to their estimates, oil shortages will appear in H2 2023 with a deficit of oil amounting to 2 mn barrels per day in Q3 2023. 

Alexei Vedev believes that if western analysts’ forecasts materialize and oil prices keep appreciating, the exchange rate of the ruble will be in the band of Rb75-Rb80 per $1 by the end of the year and the inflation rate will decline.