Analysis of social and economic aspects of prospective alcohol consumption dynamics in Russia for the period up to 2025 (Union of Russian Producers of Beer and Non-alcoholic beverages, November 2019 - April 2020)

The aim of the research is to analyze social and economic aspects of the prospective alcohol consumption dynamics in Russia for the period up to 2025, including the development of excise policy scenarios, analysis of the consequences of their implementation, drafting proposals to improve the excise taxation system of alcoholic products in Russia.

The project’s substance:

•  Analysis of current trends in regulation of alcohol production and consumption in certain countries and their associations over the last decade, including through excise taxation.
•  Analysis of social and economic aspects of alcohol consumption in selected countries of the world and Russia (identifying subjects of the Russian Federation with the best and worst indicators) in the 2010s, with a focus on the last three years.
• ØAnalysis of excise policy and excise duties structure on alcoholic products in the EAEU countries, including analysis of plans to harmonize excise duties on alcoholic products within the EAEU.
• Construction of economic and mathematical models of equilibrium demand for alcoholic products in Russia, providing for the feasibility of scenario analysis and forecasting of consumption volumes in the context of key types of alcoholic products.
• Updating of the previously used approach to the assessment of social, economic and budgetary consequences for the Russian economy depending on the performance of the alcohol industry.
•  Justification of feasible scenarios of changes in excise taxation and other forms of regulation of production and consumption of alcoholic products in Russia until 2025.
•  Scenario analysis and assessment on the basis of constructed economic and mathematical models of the consequences of feasible scenarios of changes in excise taxation and other forms of regulation of production and consumption of alcoholic products for the period up to 2025 by assessing such indicators as: the impact on the volume of alcohol consumption; impact on the level of budget revenues from producers of alcoholic beverages, including in the context of regions of the country; total social and economic effect (in terms of the total social and economic impact of alcoholic products, including in the regions of the country).
•  Development of approach to estimating the volume of illegal alcohol production in Russia by main types of alcoholic beverages.
•  Forecast estimation, considering scenario analysis of alcohol consumption volumes, of changes (“switching”) in illegal alcohol consumption volumes.
•  Analysis and evaluation of alcohol consumption dynamics in Russia projected within the framework of scenario analysis on the indicators of the national projects “Health Care”, “Demography” (for each of the scenarios).

The project was completed in late April 2020.