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Retail bank accounts and deposits were shrinking at fast rates in Q1 2014.

On April 8, 2014, European Union filed a request to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on undertaking of consultancies with Russian Federation on measures concerning import of pigs, pork, and pork products from the EU member countries.

The initial estimation of Russia’s balance of payments in Q1 2014 was published on April 8, 2014. This helps understand the scope of changes made to the structure of foreign economic operations.

The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia has unsurprisingly changed its official economic growth projection for Russia in 2014. For example, the projected baseline scenario shows that GDP in 2014 is going to grow at a rate of 1.1% rather than 2.5% comparing to the previous year.

A few days ago Rosstat published its revised results of economic growth in Russia in 2013, showing that the Russian economy is facing accelerated growth rather than stagnation or recession.

Industrial enterprises’ labor productivity measurements in Q1 2014 have nearly regained the absolute peak value over six years of monitoring of this indicator.

The recent international events have made it clear that foreign policy may cost dear. Unexpected increase in capital outflow caused by growth in political risks around Russia has given rise to the knock-on effect in the financial market and around.

Our estimates show that fall in global prices of energy resources will have a serious adverse effect on Russia’s economic growth rates which depend largely on foreign trade situation, in particular oil prices.

The Bank of Russia has summed up its operations in the domestic foreign exchange market in March 2014. The Bank of Russia sold $22,3bn and 2,3bn euro during the month.

The Russian Government has commissioned a few of public departments to prepare by April 15, 2014 their proposals on the establishment of a Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in the Crimea. Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukayev stated that the Crimea might have a SEZ similar to that in the Kaliningrad Region.

Eighty five percent of Russian industrial enterprises have reported rising prices of imported raw and other materials as a result of the ruble devaluation by March 2014. A similar situation has been observed in imported machinery and equipment markets, where 81% of enterprises have reported growth in prices of the import they trace. This is the first impressive effect of planned, and maybe not so planned, ruble devaluation.

On the other day, Alexei Ulyukaev, Minister of Economic Development made public the outputs of calculations of the Ministry of Economic Development. According to the above outputs, with taking into account the current economic situation, particularly, the expected capital outflow of $60bn in the 1st quarter of 2014 (which is comparable to the capital outflow in 2013), in 2014 the economic growth rates in Russia will amount to 1.8%–1.9% as compared to the previous year.

Publication by the Federal Treasury on Wednesday, March 26, of the monthly report on execution of the federal budget in January revealed for a short period of time secrecy over federal law No. 349-FZ on The Federal Budget in 2014 and the 2015 Planned Period approved on December 2, 2013. Without the data provided in the report on complete allocations by sections and subsections of the functional classification of expenditures it is impossible to evaluate correctly the federal budget expenditures envisaged by the above law for 2014.

In addition to the downward revision by a number of rating agencies of Russia's long-term credit rating forecast, a similar move was made in respect of Russian banks and large companies.

Today, the World Bank published its report on the Russian economy in which it suggested two scenarios of economic growth in Russia in 2014. The first scenario proceeds from the fact that the effect of the situation around Crimea on the Russian economy will be short-lived and, consequently, slowdown of GDP growth rates to 1.1% in 2014 is expected, while in 2015, slight growth to 1.3% as compared to the previous period.

In 2013, the content of the privatization process in the Russian economy was determined by completion of the first 3-year forecast privatization plan (program) approved as early as November 2010 which event was preceded by approval of a large-scale package of amendments to the existing 2001 law on privatization.