Decomposition of the growth rate of Russian economy in 2007 – 2917 and the forecast for 2018 - 2020

An article “Decomposition of the growth rate of Russian economy in 2007 – 2017 and the forecast for 2018 – 2020” was published in the journal “Voprosy economiki”, No.9, 2018 by a group of authors of the Gaidar Institute, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA) and the Russian Foreign Trade Academy (RFTA).The article proposed methodological development of decomposition of the GDP growth rate adapted for Russian economy. Estimates were made with regard to structural unemployment (NAWRU) and total factor productivity in Russia.  Different scenario of the macroeconomic dynamics for 2018 – 2020 allowed to assess structural, foreign trade and market - determined component of the GDR growth rate. The outcome of the research demonstrate that principal contribution to the growth rate in 2018-2020 will be secured by the total of the business cycle components and incidental shocks, which in combination with revival of the investment dynamics in 2017 may indicate the beginning of a new cycle of economic growth of the Russian economy. Contribution of the foreign trade component in 2018—2020 will be negative within the frame of a scenario under consideration.  Results of the calculations indicate further structural slowdown of the Russian economy in 2018—2020 within the scope of every basic macroeconomic scenario under consideration. This reflects that it is inappropriate to delay structural reforms required to develop the background for Russian economy to achieve the growth rates exceeding global average.

Contributors: Sergey Sinelnikov–Murylev, Sergey Drobyshevsky, Georgy Idrisov, Andrey Kaukin and Pavel Pavlov.

Article is available here