Denis Ternovsky has assessed the likely implications of China’s tariffs on US agricultural products
«The restrictions imposed on imports of agricultural products and food to China from the United States were expected as tensions increased in trade relations between the two countries. At the same time, their scale is within the limits making it feasible to return the situation to its previous level should a comprehensive compromise be achieved», —
According to Denis Ternovsky, a similar situation was observed during US President Donald Trump’s first term in office when the supply volumes of US agricultural products were sharply reduced over several years on the back of restrictions, but restored quickly after trade relations normalized. However, such fluctuations have their own advantage: China has embarked on the path of diversifying its suppliers and developing its own production.
Also, Denis Ternovsky notes in a ТАSS publication that Brazil has become the main beneficiary, having increased exports of agricultural products to China. If in 2017 Brazilian export volumes to China slightly exceeded for the first time export volumes from the United States, in 2024 they exceeded them twofold. Tariffs on US agricultural products give advantages to suppliers from third countries, including Russia.
Far Eastern soybean producers can benefit, but export growth should follow production growth, «and this is a rather inertial process». «A favorable development would be China’s removal of technical barriers to Russian wheat supplies which are currently small relative to other major players in the Chinese market», — Denis Ternovsky said.
Tuesday, 11.03.2025