Gaidar Institute experts commented on the new US tariff policy

Donald Trump imposed import duties on more than 180 countries, citing the need to reduce the trade deficit and bring manufacturing back to the US.

Alexander Firanchuk expressed doubts about the effectiveness of this strategy. «The lack of economic logic in the choice of the size of tariffs is obvious, as they hardly contribute to the reduction of the US trade deficit in the medium term. During the previous Trump presidency, the US trade deficit did not decrease, but on the contrary, increased — from $735 bn in 2016 to $845 bn in 2019 and $901 bn in 2020. The trade war strategy employed then did not lead to the expected reduction in the deficit. There is no reason to believe that it will work now," the expert said.

According to Olga Ponomaryova, the imposition of duties is a tool to put pressure on partners and create environment for further negotiations. The expert noted that a number of countries have already expressed their readiness for dialog: «Such intentions have been announced in the UK, South Korea and, most importantly, in China. India is also ready to make concessions on tariffs on supplies from the United States.

At the same time, the expert emphasized that the willingness to negotiate does not exclude negative consequences for the global economy. The countries' retaliatory measures «will additionally spur inflation and have a devastating impact on trade within global value chains," Olga Ponomaryova said. According to the expert, the UK and South Korea will be able to form the conditions for tariff elimination faster than others, as they already have experience in such agreements. The scenario of negotiations with China remains unpredictable due to the large number of contradictions and disagreements between the countries.

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