Gaidar Institute experts on the crypto summit hosted by Donald Trump's administration

Andrei Zubarev, head of the Digital Finance Studies Department at the Gaidar Institute, told RTVI that investors expected the United States to start actively buying bitcoins. However, the White House announced that the reserve would be formed only at the expense of assets already confiscated by the government, and no budget funds are planned to be allocated for the purchase of additional cryptocurrencies.

«Any market grows due to the inflow of liquidity, but the US decided not to rush with it," explains Andrey Zubarev. «The wallets of the American authorities already hold about 200,000 bitcoins seized in criminal cases. It would be unwise not to use them as the first 'contribution' to the reserve: it removes the risk of mass sales, as was the case, for example, with the seized assets in Germany in the summer of 2024. However, the absence of a plan for further purchases means that the market will not fill up with 'state' liquidity, which is probably what investors expected.»

The reserve promised to include other, more centralized assets: Ethereum, Solana, Cardano and XRP. However, as Andrei Zubarev notes, there are also questions here. «The companies behind the administration of these cryptocurrencies could simply hand over some of the tokens to the US as part of some 'deal' that Donald Trump is so fond of making. This will also in no way increase liquidity," he elaborates.

In the long term, bitcoin’s status may strengthen despite the general outflow of liquidity, the expert believes. The S&P 500 index has fallen by 7% since mid-February and cryptocurrencies have followed suit.

«The use of Bitcoin as a US reserve asset clearly confirms its status as «digital gold». The US is not the first country to have a Bitcoin hoarding strategy (El Salvador and Bhutan are other examples), but the US is the world’s first economy, which may send some signals to a wide range of investors: «If the U.S. holds crypto, it means it’s not such a scam, right?» — Andrei Zubarev highlighted.

Using confiscated assets to replenish US cryptocurrency reserves could significantly affect cryptocurrency exchanges, especially those associated with illegal activities, warned Kirill Chernovol, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Analysis Department.

«A recent example is the arrest of Garantex, Russian cryptocurrency exchange accused of laundering money for cybercriminals. U.S. authorities seized its domain names and froze more than $26 million," he pointed out.

«Pressure is possible through restricting access of Russian individuals to international crypto exchanges, such sanctions have already been introduced earlier," summarized Ivan Ermokhin, a researcher at the Gaidar Institute’s International Best Practices Department. «The currency reserve itself cannot become a geopolitical tool, but if some cryptocurrency is accumulated in a significant amount, the state will have the opportunity to influence the price of cryptocurrencies».

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