IGOR EFREMOV: “RUSSIA WILL HAVE THE LOWEST NUMBER OF BIRTHS IN THE COUNTRY'S MODERN HISTORY”

The RBC possesses the forecast of the Social Fund of Russia reflecting the birth rate dynamics for 2024 and the planning period up to 2026. It is assumed that the absolute number of births will drop by 5.8% in 2024, and in 2026 the rate of decline will slow down to 0.9%, the publication notes.

Igor Efremov believes that the authorities' forecast of the number of births for the next few years looks very objective and reflects current realities. It can be called realistic rather than conservative: Russia will indeed see the lowest number of births in its modern history, and this is largely due to a decrease in the number of women of childbearing age, i.e. an echo of the demographic pitfall of the 1990s and early 2000s, the expert believes.

The fertility intensity (the average number of births per woman of childbearing age), although is at a very low level (1.42 children per woman, according to data for 2022), is still above the "bottom" hit in the late 1990s, seems a positive aspect of the current situation, says Efremov (then the fertility rate fell below 1.2). However, it still does not ensure reproductivity (this requires at least 2 children per woman, Rosstat estimated).

“The current birth rate is far from the level of reproductivity, which means that it guarantees a repetition of the demographic pitfall 25 years later, but at an even lower level,” predicts Igor Efremov.