INTERVIEW BY ALEXEY VEDEV ON HOW RUSSIAN ECONOMY WILL COPE WITH SANCTIONS
On April 26, Alexey Vedev, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Head of Financial Studies Department of Gaidar Institute, told the YouTube channel “BitKogan” how Russian economy will cope with the impact of sanctions.
The interview was very informative and the main topic was undoubtedly the unprecedented crisis, which, according to Alexey Vedev, had never been seen before in the economy. The Gaidar Institute expert noted that Russia's economy was not prepared for such shocks; the crisis affected all sectors of the economy. In particular, it affected import substitution and medicine. Sanctions bans have affected the supply of components, caused a decline in demand for Russian raw materials and logistical chaos.
Given the challenging situation, the Central Bank was forced to move to drastic measures, and Elvira Nabiullina announced a serious structural overhaul of the Russian economy at the plenary session of the State Duma, starting in Q3. However, as Alexey Vedev pointed out, the Central Bank's policy has changed for the better under the context of sanctions pressure. The regulator has shifted to a new paradigm, that is, the stimulating policy, budget spending, use of NWF funds, choosing the growth strategy as a new priority.
The expert urges to act consistently and carefully in an uncertain financial climate and hopes for a reduction in the key rate. The main recommendation is to analyze the regulators' information. There is a high probability that some sector of the economy may collapse; in such a situation, the expert recommends first dealing with tactical and then moving on to strategic goals.
According to Alexey Vedev, inflation is not a major risk to the Russian economy. The more important issue is the fall in the household disposable incomes. Who will go shopping having such incomes? A drop in household income will affect consumer demand as well as the real estate market, the price of which will rise, demanding additional adjustment of mortgage interest rates.
Concluding the interview, Alexey Vedev shared his concerns about the sanctions imposed on Russia. In his view, the most dramatic negative consequences are the withdrawal of foreign companies from Russia, sanctions imposed on investment imports, supply of components and blocking of payment systems. However, the biggest concern is the monitoring of compliance with these sanctions by the EU.
"Any crisis is first and foremost a blow to the economy and perhaps in our case zero dependence on the global market is not that bad, rather it is good," summarized Alexey Vedev.
Given the challenging situation, the Central Bank was forced to move to drastic measures, and Elvira Nabiullina announced a serious structural overhaul of the Russian economy at the plenary session of the State Duma, starting in Q3. However, as Alexey Vedev pointed out, the Central Bank's policy has changed for the better under the context of sanctions pressure. The regulator has shifted to a new paradigm, that is, the stimulating policy, budget spending, use of NWF funds, choosing the growth strategy as a new priority.
The expert urges to act consistently and carefully in an uncertain financial climate and hopes for a reduction in the key rate. The main recommendation is to analyze the regulators' information. There is a high probability that some sector of the economy may collapse; in such a situation, the expert recommends first dealing with tactical and then moving on to strategic goals.
According to Alexey Vedev, inflation is not a major risk to the Russian economy. The more important issue is the fall in the household disposable incomes. Who will go shopping having such incomes? A drop in household income will affect consumer demand as well as the real estate market, the price of which will rise, demanding additional adjustment of mortgage interest rates.
Concluding the interview, Alexey Vedev shared his concerns about the sanctions imposed on Russia. In his view, the most dramatic negative consequences are the withdrawal of foreign companies from Russia, sanctions imposed on investment imports, supply of components and blocking of payment systems. However, the biggest concern is the monitoring of compliance with these sanctions by the EU.
"Any crisis is first and foremost a blow to the economy and perhaps in our case zero dependence on the global market is not that bad, rather it is good," summarized Alexey Vedev.
Tuesday, 26.04.2022