Olga Ponomaryova assessed the prospects for the development of Trump's trade war and its consequences for the global economy

According to the expert, the U.S. seeks to solve the issue of trade deficit and replenish the budget at the expense of customs tariffs. However, as the experience of the tariff war with China shows, the achievement of these goals is not guaranteed. Moreover, comprehensive tariffs may limit the possibility of reorienting imports and lead to higher prices for U.S. consumers.

Despite the American administration’s confidence in the harmlessness of the innovations for the domestic economy, many countries are ready for countermeasures. «We are talking, for example, about China and the European Union, which have previously announced their readiness to introduce retaliatory measures against the United States. At the same time, there is a balancing of Washington’s tough trade policy in a more strategic way. In particular, China, Japan and South Korea have already announced the resumption of negotiations on a triple trade agreement, which should lead to deeper cooperation to counterbalance the protectionist measures of the United States," the expert explained.

Olga Ponomareva does not rule out that in some cases Trump’s strategy may be successful. «For example, India has already indicated its readiness to reduce tariffs on US imports, but there are specific features here. First, the country does use fairly high tariff barriers to protect the domestic market from foreign goods, so there is a certain margin for reducing tariffs here. Secondly, India balances its relations with the United States and never seeks aggravation and open conflicts," the expert added.

Olga Ponomareva also assessed the prospects of relocating production facilities to the United States. In her opinion, this will require significant resources and time, and without additional support from the government, the implementation of such projects will be hard.

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