Russian economy in 1996. Trends and Perspectives (Issue 16)
Publication date
Wednesday, 19.03.1997
Authors
V. Mau S. Sinelnikov-Myrylev G. Trofimov S. Arkhipov S. Batkibekov S. Drobyshevski V. Medoyev O. Izriadnova G. Kuranov Yu. Bobylev Ye. Serova L. Korbut I. Khramova O. Meliukhina T. Tikhonova S. Prikhodko N. Leonova N. Volovik I. Kolosnitsyn S Shyshkin I. Rozhdestvenskaya A. Radygin N. Shmeleva
Series
Russian Economy: Trends and Perspecitves
There exists a peculiarity of the post-communist evolution in general, and in Russia in particular: this is the strong dependence of the economic processes upon the political ones. A natural indicator of this dependence is the modification of the basic macro-economic indexes (first of all, inflation, dynamics of production volumes, budget deficit, etc.) resulting fr om the political situation. Moreover, in contrast to the countries with the stable market economy, wh ere the political changes lead to the changes of the economic parameters by percents or their shares, the choice (or the change of its probability) of one of the economical and political alternatives existing in the today’s Russia may lead to the change of the macro-economic indexes by times.
Contents
Section 1 Political Processes and Macroeconomics in 1996 5
Introduction 5
1.1. Political Incertitude and Economy 6
1.2. Parliamentary Elections of 1995 and Financial Stabilization 8
1.3. Macro-economic Problems of Electoral Struggle of 1996 12
1.4. Government in Situation of Political Incertitude 25
1.5. Economic Policy after Presidential Elections 33
1.6. Phenomenon of Deferred Growth 47
1.7. Variants of economic policy 55
Section 2 Real Sector of Economy 61
2.1 Main Trends in Real Sector of Economy 61
2.2 Industry 67
2.3. Agro-Industrial Complex 77
2.4. Investment Processes in Real Sector of Economy 95
2.5. External Trade 101
Appendix I. Payment Balance of Russia 107
Section 3. The Social Sphere 111
3.1. The Standard of Living 111
3.2. Social and Cultural Sphere 116
Section 4. Institutional and Microeconomic Issues 125
4.1. Privatization in 1996: process dynamics and main problems 125
4.2. Institutional aspects of the evolution of the market of corporate
securities and financial go-betweens 138