Model Calculations of Short-Term Forecasts of Social and Economic Indices of the Russian Federation (August 2021)

Annotation
This paper presents calculations by researchers at the Gaidar Institute1 of economic indicators derived from time series models for the period over September of 2021 to February of 20222 The forecasting method belongs to the group of formal or statistical methods. In other words, the calculated values neither express the opinion nor the expert evaluation of the researcher, but rather, they are calculations of future values for a specific economic indicator derived by formal ARIMA(p, d, q)-models, given a prevailing trend and divergences, in some cases, by a significant amount. The forecasts here are inertial in nature because the respective models rely upon the dynamics of the data registered prior to the moment of forecasting and depend too heavily on the trends, which are typical of the time series in the period immediately preceding the forecasted time horizon. These calculations of future values of economic indicators for the Russian Federation can be used in making economic policy decisions, provided that the general trends that were observed prior to forecasting for each indicator remain the same, i.e. prevailing long-term trends will see no serious shocks or changes in the future.