Russian Economy in 2019. Trends and Outlooks (Issue 41)

Publication date
Wednesday, 10.06.2020

Authors
Abramov A.E. Avdonina A.M.. Avksentyev N.A.. Apevalova E.A.. Arlashkin I.Yu.. Bayeva M.A.. Balandina G.V.Barbashova N.E.. Barinova V.A.. Belev S.G.. Bobylev Yu.N.. Bozhechkova A.V.. Borzykh K.A.. Burdyak A.Ya.. Volovik N.P.. Gataulina E.A.. Grishina E.E.. Dezhina I.G.. Deryugin A.N.. Eliseyeva M.A.. Zemtsov S.P.. Zubov S.A.. Ignatov A.A.. Idrisov G.I.. Izryadnova O.I..Kazenin K I.. . Kaukin A.C.. Knobel A.Yu.. Kuzyk M.G.. Kurakova N.G.. Larionova M.V.. Lyashok V.Yu.. Maleva T.M.. Malginov G.N.. Mau V.A.. Miller E.M.. Mkrtchyan N.V.. Nazarov V.S.. Pleskachev Yu.A.. Polezhayeva N.A.. Ponomarev Yu. Yu.. Ponomareva E.A.. Popova I.M.. Radygin A.D.. Sakharov A.G..Simachev Yu.V.. Sisigina N.N.. Sokolov I.A.. Starodubrovskaya I.V.. Sternik S.G.. Ternovskiy D.S.. Tishchenko T.V.. Trunin P.V.. Fedyunina A.A.. Florinskaya Yu.F.. Khasanova R.R.. Tsareva Yu.V.. Tsukhlo S.V.. Chernova M.I.. Shagayda N.I..Shadrin A.E.. Shelepov A.V.. Shishkina E.A.

Series
Russian Economy: Trends and Perspectives

Contents

Section 1. Economics and politics in 2019–2020  9
1.1. Global challenges and national responses  9
   1.1.1. Trends and challenges  10
1.2. Economic growth and economic crisis  16
1.3. Economic policy of Russia  20

Section 2. Monetary and fiscal spheres  27
2.1. Monetary policy  27
   2.1.1. Monetary policy trends  27
   2.1.2. The money market  30
   2.1.3. Inflationary processes  36
   2.1.4. The balance of payments and the ruble exchange rate  40
2.2. Fiscal policy  45
   2.2.1. Characteristics of budgets of the budgetary system of Russia  45
   2.2.2. Specification of the federal budget  51
   2.2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances  57

Section 3. Financial markets and financial institutions  65
3.1. The Russian financial market  65
   3.1.1. The stock market in 2019 and Q1 2020  65
   3.1.2. Equity risk premium  76
   3.1.3. The fundamental characteristics of the stock market  83
   3.1.4. The stock market organization  92
   3.1.5. The general characteristics of the domestic bond market  101
   3.1.6. The fundamental characteristics of corporate bonds 105
   3.1.7. The corporate bond market organization  115
   3.1.8. The government bond market  119
   3.1.9. The derivatives market  123
   3.1.10. Financial intermediaries and exchange infrastructure  125
   3.1.11. Investors  130
   3.1.12. The Russian financial market risks  144
3.2. Municipal and sub-federal debt market  148
   3.2.1. Market development dynamic  148
   3.2.2. Borrowing structure  152
   3.2.3. Domestic bonded debt  154
   3.2.4. Prospects for the development of market of regional and municipal borrowing  157
3.3. The Banking sector  160
   3.3.1. Financial results of the banking sector  160
   3.3.2. Corporate lending  162
   3.3.3. Retail lending  163
   3.3.4. Banking sector resources  166

Section 4. The real sector of the economy  169
4.1. The dynamics and pattern of economic growth  169
   4.1.1. The dynamics of the Russian economy in 2019: domestic and external demand  169
   4.1.2. Utilization of GDP in 2016–2019: households’ ultimate consumption  173
   4.1.3. The formation of GDP by income source: wages and labor efficiency  177
4.2. The output dynamics by the type of economic activities  180
4.3. Russian industrial sector in 2019 (based on survey findings)  192
   4.3.1. General assessment of 2019  192
   4.3.2. Dynamics of key industrial indexes in 2019  200
4.4. Fixed investment  206
   4.4.1. Investment resources  206
   4.4.2. Fixed investment financing by source and by type of ownership  208
   4.4.3. Fixed investments by type of capital stock  210
   4.4.4. Investment activity by type of economic activity  212
4.5. The Oil and gas sector in 2019  214
   4.5.1. Dynamic of global oil and gas prices  214
   4.5.2. Production dynamic in the oil and gas sector  217
   4.5.3. Dynamic and structure of oil and gas export  220
   4.5.4. Dynamic of domestic prices on energy products  221
   4.5.5. Prospects for development of the Russian oil industry  223
4.6. Agricultural sector  224
   4.6.1. Estimates of agricultural contribution to dynamics of national economy  224
   4.6.2. Dynamics of production, consumption, food export port substitution  226
   4.6.3. Government support of agriculture  228
   4.6.4. New challenges of 2020  237
4.7. The transport complex  239
   4.7.1. The general structure of transport activities in 2019  239
   4.7.2. The state of the transport infrastructure, rolling stock, and vehicle fleet specific to each mode of transport  250
4.8. Small and medium-sized entrepreneurship in Russia and regions in 2019–2020  261
   4.8.1. The main development trends and barriers in Russia’s SME sector in 2019–2020   262
   4.8.2. Geography and dynamics of SME subjects activity indicators  265
   4.8.3. Recommendations for entrepreneurial policy in Russia  270
4.9. The foreign trade  272
   4.9.1. The State of the global economy and trade  272
   4.9.2. The Russian foreign trade situation: prices of main commodities of Russian exports and imports  276
   4.9.3. The main indicators of the Russian foreign trade  281
   4.9.4. The geographic pattern of the Russian foreign trade  287
   4.9.5. The Russian foreign trade regulation  288
4.10. Russia’s participation in the WTO disputes  293
   4.10.1. The progress, in 2019, of the trade disputes handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as complainant  296
   4.10.2. The progress, in 2019, of the trade disputes handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as respondent  298
   4.10.3. The progress, in 2019, of the trade disputes handled by the WTO where Russia has acted as third party  300

Section 5. Social sphere 327
5.1. Incomes of the population and assessment of financial situation  327
   5.1.1. Dynamics of incomes of population and their components  327
   5.1.2. Dynamics of subjective and monetary poverty  329
   5.1.3. Dynamics of the income inequality  331
   5.1.4. Risk factors of decrease of incomes and increase of the poverty rate in 2020   331
5.2. Loans and retail bank deposits  332
5.3. Retail sales and consumer prices  337
5.4. Labor market dynamics  341
5.5. Migration processes  345
   5.5.1. Long-term migration  345
   5.5.2. Temporary migration  347
5.6. Demographic situation  349
5.7. The main issues of the state policy in education in 2019  359
   5.7.1. The “Education” National Project  359
   5.7.2. The new FSES in general education  365
   5.7.3. The “Regulatory Guillotine” and accreditation of higher education institutions  367
   5.7.4. The coronavirus pandemic and the measures applied in the Russian education system: challenges for 2020  369
5.8. The creation of a unified national health system  372
   5.8.1. The outcome of the implementation of the May 2012 executive orders of the President  372
   5.8.2. The launch of the national project ‘Healthcare’  375
   5.8.3. Centralization of the system of state guarantees  377
5.9. The housing market in Russia’s cities  382
   5.9.1. The movement of housing market prices  383
   5.9.2. The construction, commissioning, and supply of new housing units  387
   5.9.3. Legal novations in the shared-equity construction system  392
   5.9.4. The housing market prospects  399

Section 6. Institutional change  401
6.1. The public sector and privatization  401
   6.1.1. Economic subjects in federal ownership  401
   6.1.2. Privatization policy  406
   6.1.3. The presence of the State in the economy and the issues of management of economic subjects operating in the public sector  418
   6.1.4. The budgetary effect of government property policy  425
   6.1.5. The government program federal property management: new amendments (version) and current results  433
6.2. The standards and practices of corporate governance: relevant current trends  442
   6.2.1. Phases of the evolvement of ‘Russian’ corporate governance standards  442
   6.2.2. The board of directors and supervisory board in the corporate governance system  446
   6.2.3. Prescriptive decision making on the part of the State  455
   6.2.4. Dividend policy  457
   6.2.5. New technologies and corporate governance  459
6.3. Adaptation of Russian industrial companies to the challenges of digital transformation  471
6.4. Science and innovations  484
   6.4.1. Strategic guidelines  485
   6.4.2. Plans to finance R & D from the budget  486
   6.4.3. Reorganization of research foundations  487
   6.4.4. Plans and restrictions to attract young people to science  489
   6.4.5. Research and educational centers as a new priority  491
   6.4.6. Publishing activity and plans to transform Project 5-top 100  495
   6.4.7. RAS as an expert institution  497
   6.4.8. Conflicting signals: appeals for internationalization vs growth of autarchy  500
   6.4.9. Innovation activity  504
6.5. Customs administration: novation of 2019  509
6.6. Russia in international economic institutions  517
   6.6.1. G20 and BRICS  517
   6.6.2. International financial institutions  519
   6.6.3. Energy cooperation with the EU  521
   6.6.4. The EAEU  522
   6.6.5. The Arctic Council  523
   6.6.6. Internet governance and cyber security  524
6.7. The strategic development prospects of the North Caucasus federal okrug  525
6.8. The implementation of executive order No.204 of May 7, 2018 of The President of The Russian Federation and national projects in 2019  529
   6.8.1. The system of management of achievement of national goals and implementation of national projects  530
   6.8.2. The main outputs of implementation of national projects in 2019  532
   6.8.3. Funding of national projects  556

References 561
Authors  589

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