Russian Economy in 2022. Trends and Outlooks (Issue 44)

Publication date
Tuesday, 04.07.2023

Authors
Abramov A.E., Avksent'ev N.A., Apevalova E.A., Arlashkin I.YU., Baeva M.A., Balandina G.V., Barbashova N.E., Barinova V.A., Bozhechkova A.V., Vekerle K.V., Volovik N.P., Dezhina I.G., Demidova K.V., Deryugin A.N., Dorohina K.M., Zemcov S.P., Zubov S.A., Ignatov A.A., Izryadnova O.I., Kaukin A.S., Klyachko T.L., Knobel' A.YU., Larionova M.V., Levakov P.A., Leonov E.A., Lyashok V.YU., Makarenceva A.O., Mal'ginov G.N., Matveev E.O., Miller E.M., Mkrtchyan N.V., Nazarov V.S., Osavolyuk A.A., Podverbnyh U.S., Polezhaeva N.A., Ponomarev YU.YU., Popova I.M., Radygin A.D., Rostislav K.A., Saharov A.G., Sisigina N.N., Sitkevich D.A., Sokolov I.A., Sternik S.G., Ternovskij D.S., Tishchenko T.V., Tokareva G.S., Trunin P.V., Florinskaya YU.F., Hasanova R.R., Cacura E.A., Cuhlo S.V., CHernova M.I., Shagajda N.I., Shadrin A.E., Shelepov A.V.

Series
Russian Economy: Trends and Perspectives

Contents

Introduction. From the editors 9

Section 1. Monetary and fiscal spheres 11
1.1. Monetary policy   11
1.1.1. The main trends of the monetary policy 11
1.1.2. The money market 15
1.1.3. Inflationary processes  21
1.1.4. The balance of payments and the ruble exchange rate 25
1.2. Fiscal policy 29
1.2.1. Characteristics of the budgets of the budget system of the Russian Federation 29
1.2.2. Characteristics of the federal budget  36
1.2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances 40

Section 2. Financial markets and financial institutions 49
2.1. Russian financial market 49
2.1.1. Trends in the global financial market 49
2.1.2. Sanctions and responses in the Russian financial market  59
2.1.3. Yield and risks of Russian securities 68
2.1.4. Financial crises in the Russian stock market  82
2.1.5. Institutional features of the stock market 87
2.1.6. The bond market 96
2.1.7. The derivatives and FX markets  118
2.1.8. Financial intermediaries and exchanges  123
2.1.9. Investors on the domestic financial market 127
2.2. Municipal and sub-federal debt market  139
2.3. The banking sector  144
2.3.1. Key indicators and financial performance of the banking sector  144
2.3.2. Corporate lending  145
2.3.3. Retail lending  148
2.3.4. Mortgage lending 151
2.3.5. Bank resources  154

Section 3. The real sector  159
3.1. Dynamics and structure of GDP and investments  159
3.1.1. Demand and supply: adjusting to new realia  159
3.1.2. Domestic market: consumption and households’ income 169
3.1.3. Investment and construction complex: structural features 2022  171
3.2. Sectoral dynamics of industrial production in 2022 178
3.2.1. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q1  181
3.2.2. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q2182
3.2.3. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q3 184
3.2.4. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q4 185
3.3. Russian industry in 2022  187
3.3.1. Russian industry in January-February 2022   188
3.3.2. Russian industry under the first stage of SMO  190
3.3.3. Russian industry after announcement of partial mobilization  198
3.4. Transportation complex  201
3.4.1. New challenges and new tasks  201
3.4.2. Transportation operations performance in 2022  203
3.4.3. Transportation dynamic, the state of transport infrastructure and rolling stock  209
3.5. State of agricultural production and food security  216
3.6. Business activity of small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia in the context of sanctions  225
3.6.1. Analysis of the state of the SME sector 226
3.6.2. Sanctions restrictions and anti-crisis support measures of SME  230
3.6.3. Entrepreneurs’ situation assessment and anti-crisis policy  235
3.7. Foreign trade  237
3.7.1. The state of the world economy and the global trade  237
3.7.2. Terms of Russian foreign trade: price trend for the main goods of Russian exports and imports  242
3.7.3. Main indicators of the Russian foreign trade 248
3.7.4. Regional pattern of Russian foreign trade 251
3.7.5. Regulation of Russian foreign trade 254

Section 4. The social sector  263
4.1. Labor market dynamics 263
4.2. Households’ incomes and assessment of their financial situation  270
4.2.1. Forecasts and assessments of households’ incomes  270
4.2.2. The main developments in the sphere of social protection  272
4.2.3. The level and dynamics of households’ incomes  274
4.3. Demography and migration processes   278
4.3.1. The demographic situation   278
4.3.2. Long-term migration   282
4.3.3. Temporary migration  284
4.4. Health care and public health   288
4.4.1. Adaptation to new macroeconomic conditions   288
4.4.2. Pandemic of a new coronavirus infection  294
4.4.3. National project “Health care” and public health  296
4.4.4. Human resources 298
4.4.5. Drugs supply  300
4.5. Education system  301
4.5.1. Preschool education   301
4.5.2. General (school) education  302
4.5.3. Additional education for children   306
4.5.4. Secondary vocational education  307
4.5.5. Higher education   309
4.6. The development of domestic tourism: the example of the Republic of Dagestan  312
4.7. The housing market in Russian cities and housing construction  315
4.7.1. Housing market prices  316
4.7.2. Construction and commissioning of new housing  322
4.7.3. The situation in the construction sector  327
4.7.4. Moscow’s housing market  330
4.7.5. Mortgage lending dynamic and state support measures   333
4.7.6. Prospects for the housing market in 2023  339

Section 5. Institutional changes 341
5.1. Public sector and privatization  341
5.1.1. Scale of state ownership   341
5.1.2. Privatization policy  347
5.1.3. The state participation in the economy and issues of public sector management  360
5.1.4. Budgetary effect of state property policy  363
5.1.5. Reformatting state property policy  372
5.2. Corporate governance 2022: new regulation and practice   377
5.2.1. Major changes in the policy management of corporate governance  377
5.2.2. IPO and delisting in Russian corporate practices. Heading East  383
5.2.3. Trends abroad: environmental and social aspects are replacing management issues 387
5.3. The state of science and innovation  395
5.3.1. Sanctions and their consequences  396
5.3.2. Changing the system of assessment of science effectiveness  400
5.3.3. New focus of international cooperation  403
5.3.4. Turn to applied sciences 405
5.3.5. Academic and university science  408
5.3.6. Science budgetary policy 412
5.3.7. Development of technological innovation 416
5.3.8. Conclusions  421
5.4. Russia in international institutes 422
5.4.1. The G20: a critical period 422
5.4.2. The BRICS: consolidation of the partnership 426
5.4.3. The International Monetary Fund: politization of relations and limitation of access to resources  428
5.4.4. The World Bank Group: the expansion of the moratorium on cooperation with Russia  430
5.4.5. Multilateral development banks: building up sustainable financing and suspension of projects in Russia  431
5.4.6. The United Nations: amid the growing confrontation  . 433
5.4.7. The World Health Organization: maintaining a dialogue to overcome common challenges   435
5.4.8. OPEC+: difficult decision amid high volatility on oil markets 438
5.4.9. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: shaping new multipolarity  439
5.4.10. The Eurasian Economic Union: consolidation of cooperation to overcome sanctions pressure   442
5.4.11. The European Union: the strengthening of mutually disadvantageous and destructive restrictions  444
5.5. Customs administration  448
5.6. Russia in the WTO trade disputes  455
5.6.1. Sanctions against Russia and prospects of its participation in the WTO 455
5.6.2. The WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism   459
5.6.3. WTO trade disputes involving Russia  . 459

References  471

Authors 515

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