Russian economy in 2023. Trends and outlooks. (Issue 45)

Publication date
Tuesday, 18.06.2024

Authors
Abramov A.E., Apevalova E.A., Arlashkin I.Yu., Baeva M.A., Barbashova N.E, Barinova V.А., Bozhechkova A.V., Chernova M.I., Dezhina I.G., Deryugin A.N., Gvozdeva M.A., Ignatov A.A., Izryadnova O.I., Kaukin А.S., Knobel A.Y., Klyachko Т.L., Larionova М.V., Leonov E.A., Malginov G.N., Matveev E.O., Miller Е.М., Polezhaeva N.A., Ponomarev Yu.Yu., Popova I.М., Radygin A.D., Rostislav K.A., Sakharov A.G., Shagaida N.I., Shelepov А.V., Sokolov I.A., Sternik S.G., Ternovskiy D.S., Tishenko T.V., Tokareva G.S., Trunin P.V., Vekerle K.V., Volovik N.P., Zemtsov S.P.

Series
Russian Economy: Trends and Perspectives

Contents

Introduction. From the editors...7

Section 1. Monetary and fiscal systems...9
1.1. Monetary policy...9
  1.1.1. Key trends of monetary policy ...9
  1.1.2. Monetary market... 13
  1.1.3. Inflation processes... 19
  1.1.4. Balance of payments and ruble exchange rate... 23
1.2. Fiscal policy... 26
  1.2.1. Characteristics of the budgets of the budget system
of the Russian Federation ... 26
  1.2.2. Characteristics of the federal budget... 31
  1.2.3. Interbudgetary relations and subnational finances... 34

Section 2. Financial markets and financial institutions... 43
2.1. Global and Russian financial markets... 43
  2.1.1. Trends in the global financial market... 43
  2.1.2. Map of returns and risks of financial instruments
in the world... 56
  2.1.3. Returns and risks of financial instruments of Russian issuers... 60
  2.1.4. Crisis situations in financial markets ...77
  2.1.5. Institutional parameters of the Russian equity market... 83
  2.1.6. The bond market... 98
  2.1.7. Derivatives and foreign-exchange markets ...117
  2.1.8. Financial intermediaries and exchanges ...121
  2.1.9. Investors on the domestic financial market...123

Section 3. The real sector... 137
3.1. Dynamic and structure of GDP and investments...137
  3.1.1. The context and factors of the recovery growth in 2023 ...137
  3.1.2. Structural transformation of domestic production ...143
  3.1.3. Domestic market: consumption and household income...147
  3.1.4. Investment and construction complex: structural features 2022 ....149
3.2. Sectoral dynamics of industrial production in 2023 ...154
  3.2.1. Dynamics of the industrial production index in Q1 2023...156
  3.2.2. Industrial production dynamic on Q2 2023...157
  3.2.3. Industrial production dynamic in Q3 2023...157
  3.2.4. Industrial production dynamic in Q4 2023...158
3.3. Transportation complex ...160
  3.3.1. Achievements and new tasks of the transportation sector...160
  3.3.2. Transport performance indicators in 2023 ...162
  3.3.3. Sanction challenges and performance indicators
of certain types of transportation...167
3.4. Production and consumption of agricultural products...178
  3.4.1. Production...178
  3.4.2. Consumption...182
  3.4.3. Regulation and support policies in agriculture in 2023...184
3.5. Small and medium-sized enterprises in Russia in the context
of sanctions...194
  3.5.1. Dynamic of the number of enterprises in SME sector...195
  3.5.2. Employment dynamic in the SME sector...196
  3.5.3. Turnover of the SME sector companies...198
  3.5.4. SME’s exports...200
  3.5.5. Lending to SMEs...200
3.6. Foreign trade...202
  3.6.1. The state of the world economy and world trade...202
  3.6.2. Terms of Russian foreign trade: price trend for the main goods
of Russian exports and imports...206
  3.6.3. Main indicators of the Russian foreign trade...209
  3.6.4 Regional pattern of Russian foreign trade ...212
  3.6.5. Regulation of Russian foreign trade...217

Section 4. Social sphere...223
4.1. Dynamics of labor market...223
4.2. Household incomes: consumer demand and savings...226
4.3. The education system ...230
  4.3.1. General education ...231
  4.3.2. Additional education for children ...236
  4.3.3. The secondary vocational education (SVE)...238
  4.3.4. The higher education...241
4.4. The housing market in Russian cities and housing construction...244
  4.4.1. Housing market prices ...245
  4.4.2. Construction and commissioning of new housing...249
  4.4.3. The situation in the construction sector...254
  4.4.4. Moscow’s housing market...256
  4.4.5. Mortgage lending dynamic and state support measures ...258
  4.4.6. Prospects for the housing market in 2023...262

Section 5. Institutional changes...265
5.1. Public sector and privatization...265
  5.1.1. Scale of state ownership...265
  5.1.2. Privatization policy: results of implementation
and short-term prospects...271
  5.1.3. Improving privatization legislation...277
  5.1.4. The state participation in the economy and its presence
in the economy...285
  5.1.5. Public sector: radical innovations in governance ...289
  5.1.6. Impact of external pressures on property policy ...298
  5.1.7. Budgetary effect of state property policy...302
5.2. Corporate governance 2023: regulatory perspectives,
anti-sanctions and national ESG agenda...313
  5.2.1. Corporate governance 2024–2026: main directions
in the development of regulation...313
  5.2.2. Corporate legislation: extension of anti-crisis measures...317
  5.2.3. Promotion of the national sustainability agenda
by the Bank of Russia in 2023 ...320
5.3. The state of science and innovation ...325
  5.3.1. Science on the agenda of technological sovereignty...325
  5.3.2. Financing of research and development...328
  5.3.3. Government measures to mitigate the consequences
of sanctions ...332
  5.3.4. Estimates of sanctions implications...335
  5.3.5. Science in universities...337
  5.3.6. Initiatives of the Russian Academy of Sciences...340
  5.3.7. State of innovation business...345
5.4. Russia in key international institutions...349
  5.4.1. The Group of 20 ...349
  5.4.2. BRICS ...353
  5.4.3. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)...356
  5.4.4. The International Monetary Fund...359
  5.4.5. Multilateral development banks...361
  5.4.6. The United Nations ...362
  5.4.7. The World Health Organization ...365
  5.4.8. The EAEU...366
  5.4.9. The EU....369
  5.4.10. UNFCCC...372
5.5. Russia’s participation in WTO disputes...375
  5.5.1. WTO crisis and Russia’s participation in WTO
after beginning of SMO...375
  5.5.2. Retaliatory measures in the WTO...378
  5.5.3. The WTO Trade Dispute Settlement Mechanism...379
  5.5.4. WTO trade disputes with Russia’s participation...380

References...395

Authors...419

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