The industry is running on reserves of optimism

Rosstat’s published data point to a rise in business activity in industry and high demand in the extractive sectors. Based on model calculations that take into account the cyclical component of growth, experts of the Gaidar Institute note that “in June 2024 the cyclical component started to decline to 2%, which can be interpreted as the first signs of economic meltdown, but the output gap remains positive. This may indicate both the impact of the RF Central Bank’s tight monetary policy and the fact that the economy is naturally returning to its trend trajectory, where growth rates are lower than the observed current values.”