The Russian Journal of Economics published an article by Gaidar Institute experts
The Russian Journal of Economics published the article written by Director of the Center for Real Sector of the Gaidar Institute Georgy Idrisov, Deputy Head of the International Department of Fiscal Sustainability of the Center for Macroeconomics and Finance Maria Kazakova, and senior researcher of the Center for Macroeconomics and Finance Andrey Polbin.
The article titled 'A Theoretical Interpretation of the Oil Prices Impact on Economic Growth in Contemporary Russia' analyses the dependence of the economic development level and the rate of output growth in the Russian economy on the behavior of world prices for oil. It also reviews the mechanisms of long-term and short-term impacts of the behavior of global oil prices on output. The authors argue that the effect of oil prices on output has decreased dramatically under the current economic conditions since the period of recovery growth in the early 2000s. The main conclusion in the paper is that, if the classical models are to be relied on, a constant increase of the oil price level cannot influence the long-term rate of economic growth, predetermining only short-term trends of transition from one long-term equilibrium to another.