Trump's new tariffs will hit the Russian economy, Gaidar Institute experts believe

Although Russia has not been affected by the imposition of import duties, they will have an indirect impact on the Russian economy through global trade flows and oil prices, Alexander Firanchuk believes. «The US measures will lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, which will reduce demand for oil and other important Russian exports. As a result, this will reduce the revenues of the Russian budget," the expert explained.

Alexander Firanchuk also drew attention to the dependence of Russian exports on Southeast Asian countries that specialize in goods and components for the US market. They will suffer the most from the tariffs. «The Asian destination now accounts for three quarters of Russian exports, and a drop in demand in the region will require either redirecting supplies to other, more distant markets, or reducing exports," the expert said.

Dmitry Kuznetsov agreed that the impact on the oil sector will be negative, although not so large-scale. «Russia will feel the pressure through the markets of commodities and near-commodities, which take a significant share in Russian exports. We are talking not only about oil and petroleum products, but also metals, fertilizers, agro-industrial complex products. When American demand shrinks, producers will start looking for buyers in other regions, intensifying competition. This will be overlaid with the effect of reduced demand due to the slowdown in the global economy," the expert added.

He also emphasized: «Russia is still quite competitive in these sectors, but the sanction standoff somewhat limits the range of sales markets. This can put additional pressure on the prices of Russian exports even in neutral countries».

According to Dmitry Kuznetsov, Russia can benefit slightly from China’s retaliatory measures, mainly in the agricultural and fuel and energy sectors. As a result, it will reduce demand for Russian exports.

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