On October 30, the Central Bank of Russia renewed currency interventions because the ruble exchange rate hit through the upper limit of the band. It is to be noted that the Central Bank of Russia changed the mode of supplying foreign exchange to the market having given up direct sales of the foreign exchange and carried out one-day currency swap deals in the volume of $581.4m.
Comments
The Central Bank Should Consider Extension of the Terms of a Currency Swap Transaction
02 october 2014
Foreign assets overtop foreign debt in all sectors
01 october 2014
Rough analysis of Russia's external statistics shows that the Russian economy is having satisfactory formal indicators of foreign exchange liquidity.
Foreign Technologies Are of Critical Importance for the Development of Continental Shelf Oil Fields
30 september 2014
The recently introduced economic sanctions may potentially result in serious constraints on the future development of Russia's oil and gas sector. At the same time, the resulting negative effect on the oil and gas sector's prospects will be determined by the actual length of the period of their realization.
The Anti-corruption Expert's Estimation of the Draft Federal Budget Is Completed
26 september 2014
On 22 September 2014, the anti-corruption expert's estimation of a draft of the Federal Law 'On the Federal Budget for 2015 and the Planning Period 2016 - 2017' was completed; the text of the draft law itself was posted a week earlier to the Single Portal for the publication of information on the elaboration, by federal bodies of state executive authority, of drafts of normative legal acts and the results of their public discussion at regulation.gov.ru.
Stabilization of the geopolitical situation is essential for Russia to recover from economic stagnation
25 september 2014
The World Bank has recently published its report on the Russian economy in which its analysts point to the threat of Russia entering a period of stagnation or even recession in the foreseeable future. For instance, under a baseline scenario, according to the World Bank's forecast, the Russian economy would grow 0.5% in 2014 relative to the previous period, and 0.3% in 2015 and 0.4% in 2016, respectively. Economic growth would average 1% in the period between 2015 and 2016 under an optimistic scenario, whereas a long-lasting recession is expected under a pessimistic scenario (-0.9% in 2015 and -0.4% in 2016).
The Bank of Russia faces the threat of being less independent
25 september 2014
Draft Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017, published on September 12, 2014, suggests that the Bank of Russia will keep its monetary policy unchanged in general.
Next year to be the most challenging since the crisis in 1998
24 september 2014
On September 18 the Government of the Russian Federation approved a draft federal budget for the mid-term perspective, and the Ministry of Finance gave initial comments on the key parameters of the fiscal policy in an investment forum in Sochi.
It is Highly Likely that the Budget will Be Balanced on the Basis of the Results of the Year
16 september 2014
On September 15, oil prices fell to $97 a barrel (Brent oil). Simultaneously, the ruble depreciated against global currencies to the historic minimum (over Rb 38.3 per a US dollar). What does it mean to the federal budget whose oil and gas revenues depend directly on oil prices? What are the prospects of this year?
Sanctions Against Russia Also Create Risks for Western Companies of the Oil and Gas Sector
15 september 2014
A new wave of the US and EU sanctions introduced last week is further undermining the most important sectors of the Russian economy: the financial sector, the oil and gas sector and the military-defense sector. Once again, the sanctions are aimed at oil and gas corporations, enterprises of the military-industrial complex and large banks with a state participation. It is to be noted that as in the previous cases the effects from introduction of sanctions can be different for different players.
The CBR’s Decision to Preserve the Key Rate is Fairly Reasonable
15 september 2014
On September 12, the Central Bank of Russia made a decision to preserve the rate at the level of 8% though it does not exclude further growth in rates if inflationary expectations consolidate at a higher level and there is a risk of the rate of inflation not falling to the target level of 4% in the mid-term prospect.
The Country’s Food Security Depends on Development of Small Business in Agriculture
12 september 2014
The food embargo on goods fr om the US, the EU, Norway and Australia made the Russian authorities look for additional funding of the agro-industrial complex. The Ministry of Agriculture says it is important to increase the volume of subsidies this year by 50% to Rb 252.5bn, while in general till the year 2020, to nearly Rb 1.8 trillion.
The US is Not Prepared to Ensure the EU’s Independence from Russian Energy Resources
10 september 2014
On September 10, Karel De Gucht, European Commissioner for Trade said that the US should take an obligation to export oil and natural gas to Europe within the frameworks of the transatlantic trade agreement which is due to be signed by the end of 2014.
Reduction of Car Sales is Gaining Momentum
08 september 2014
In August, sales of new cars and light commercial motors in Russia – both imported ones and assembled at Russian motor works fell by 26% to 172,000 cars. On the basis of eight months of 2014, the market fell by 12% to 1.58m cars.
In the 2014-2015 Global Competitiveness Rating Russia Moved 11 Positions Upwards
03 september 2014
On September 3, 2014, the WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2014–2015 was published. According to the above Report, the rating of the Russian Federation moved 11 positions upwards.
Bank of Russia reduces the volume of accumulated interventions
26 august 2014
The Bank of Russia reduced on August 18 the volume of accumulated interventions shifting by 5 kopeks the currency trading band to $350m from $1000m.
Central Bank eases its grip on the national currency
20 august 2014
The Central Bank of Russia has widened to Rb 9 fr om Rb 7 the range of the acceptable ruble value of the dual-currency basket (floating trading band) since August 18, 2014. The range of the currency trading band has been shifted by Rb 1 for either side of the trading band so that the floor and top limits are set Rb 35,4 and Rb 44,4 respectively (now the dual-currency basket value is set Rb 41,61).